I Spy 4.0 - Duke Edition! Part 1
I Spy 4.0 - Duke Edition! Part 1
With less than a month left in the regular season, and teams heating up for the post-season, scouting has transitioned from “what can a prospect do”, to “can the prospect sustain and improve their play”. Strengths, abilities, habits, and weaknesses, have all been identified by now. Conference playoffs and March Madness are two of the last opportunities prospects can show what they’re made of. There’s plenty of programs to watch at a time like this, but Duke stands out as a team that can get hot in March.
Duke has changed. After 42 seasons and 5 national titles, the legendary Coach K announced his retirement as head coach. Jon Scheyer, former player, and assistant coach was hired to fill Coach K’s spot and lead the Blue Devils into a new era. He’s hit the ground running, with no time to waste. Typically, programs have a couple of NBA-prospects max, the remainder of the lineup filled by upperclassmen/transfers familiar to the coach’s system and overall collegiate play. Alabama, Kansas, and Kentucky are good examples of this. Coach Scheyer doesn’t have this. There are five freshmen in Duke’s rotations that are projected first-rounders. Jeremy Roach, a junior, is the only non-freshman in their starting lineup. Undoubtedly, it’s been a turbulent season for the rookie coach and his rookie players, but they’ve shown flashes worth investing in.
Dariq Whitehead
At Monteverde Academy, Whitehead ranked No. 2 overall by ESPN 100’s rankings, winning 2021-22 Gatorade’s Florida boys basketball player of the year award, and Sports Illustrated All-American Player of the Year. At 6’7”, 220-lbs, a big selling point of Whitehead’s game at Monteverde was his explosiveness. Whitehead could push out in transition, play above the rim, and finish through contact. In combination with this explosiveness, Whitehead was an advanced pull-up shooter. A very confident scorer from the midrange and from deep, with a few intriguing flashes in iso, using either his crossover or a stepback to create separation and get a bucket. His frame and size allow him to get physical and overpower his matchups in the post, while locking up his man on defense.
It looked to be a homerun season for Whitehead, but his opportunity was immediately K’d by injury. In late August, Whitehead suffered a broken right foot, missing not only the first three games of the season, but most of the preseason workouts and practices as well. Still not 100% from his foot injury, Whitehead made his debut against Delaware, dropping 6 points on 3-11 fg in the 92-58 blowout win. The first half of the season Whitehead continued to struggle, averaging 5.6/2.4/0.8(14.9 mpg), on 35.3/27.8/80.0 shooting. The latter half of the season, Whitehead showed signs of improvement, averaging 11.1/2.3/1.6(25.5 mpg), on 40.3/41.5/100 shooting. As Whitehead was finally settling in, he suffered yet another injury, this time a lower leg strain.
With Whitehead in and out of the rotation, it’s hard to make any definitive conclusions about his game. Whitehead looks to be an incredibly polished scorer off the bounce, as well as off the catch. He’s shooting 50% 3pt in February, raising his overall 3pt% to 42%. Whitehead shows good pace and craftiness getting downhill but oddly doesn’t have great touch around the rim. Especially through contact, Whitehead tends to overthink his finishing. His layups in the half court either have no touch, or way too much. He hasn’t found that rhythm at the basket like he’s found at the perimeter. This goes into his court/spatial awareness. Whitehead takes far too many long-twos, and far too many bad passes. Doesn’t make great decisions with the ball in his hand, but his brilliance shines when he’s off-ball relocating for open threes or making timely cuts to the basket.
From what he’s shown, Whitehead is a more than capable knockdown shooter given space, can get his own bucket if need be. A starter on a mid-level team, a valuable rotation piece on a contender.
Tyrese Proctor
Proctor, like Whitehead, has also struggled to find his footing this season. Proctor’s journey is a bit different from the rest, coming all the way from Australia to play for the Blue Devils. Before heading into this season, Proctor was selected to represent Australia in the FIBA Asia Cup, where the Aussies would take home gold. At FIBA, Proctor averaged 10.5/3.5/1.8 on 53% TS. His performance wasn’t perfect, but the upside was unmistakable for the 17-year-old point guard.
At 6’5”, 175-lbs, Proctor is one of the few point guards available in this draft projected outside the lottery. Proctor’s season has been shaky at best, averaging an inefficient 9.2/3.4/2.9, on 44.4% eFG. There are many things Proctor has had to figure out on the fly this season as a guard, starting with his fit alongside Jeremy Roach. Proctor can play off-ball, but he’s not a shooting guard. As team captain and Duke’s starting point guard last season, Jeremy Roach inherited the role as the squad’s primary ball-handler. This caused issues with Proctors fit, role, and the overall chemistry of the team when both guards were on the floor. Eventually, Roach would suffer an injury in early January, giving Proctor an opportunity as the sole starting point guard. In the 15 games before Roach’s injury, Proctor was shooting 22.6% 3pt, and averaging 2.2 assists per game. In the 9 games after Roach’s injury, Proctor was shooting a much improved 35.4% 3pt, and 4.1 assists per game. Proctor immediately improved when put in as the primary ball handler. The decision making improved, the shot making improved, the playmaking improved, and the synergy of the lineups improved.
The biggest impact Proctor has on Duke is offensive production, by way of his playmaking and shot creation. He’s the only guard in Duke’s rotation that consistently creates simple looks for others. He works best out the pnr, with a keen ability to manipulate the defense to produce consistent quality looks. Proctor is one of the best guards among freshman reading defenses and making the right play. His versatility as a passer has boosted Duke’s offense significantly, given that almost everyone else in their lineup is scoring-centric, and weak as passers.
As a scorer, Proctor is still finding his rhythm. The form is there, but the shots weren’t falling. This has improved. In February, he’s been shooting 40% 3pt, compared to a dismal 28.6% in December. He gets good spacing on his jumpers, and rarely does he take bad/highly contested shots. Proctor isn’t necessarily an off the dribble scorer, instead relying on screens and soft coverages for spacing. His jumpers are mainly off the catch and pull-ups. When he is self-creating, he’s trying to get to the rim. Despite his lean frame, Proctor embraces contact, unafraid to put his body into a defender for the basket.
Defensively, Proctor has done a serviceable job as the POA. On-ball, Proctor does a great job staying in front, applying pressure, and forcing tough shots. He has rather impressive instincts and anticipation, and while he’s only averaging 0.5 steals, those qualities are one of the reasons why Duke is an awfully close 2nd behind No. 6 in the nation Virginia in dRTG. Proctor weaknesses on defense show with his screen navigation and off-ball alertness. Proctor fights hard going over top of screens, and almost always does he get beat. He has little to no recovery defense, so the possession is almost always lost if his man attacks. Most guards struggle defending pnr, and it’s possible he gets better fighting through screens when he adds muscle, but it’s not guaranteed. Off-ball, Proctor is a big ball watcher, and tends to be a step behind his man on cuts. He’s so focused on anticipating actions from the ball-handler, he misses what his guy is doing. This habit doesn’t show up in the clutch, so it’s likely just a matter of focus/discipline, something everyone needs at 18-years-old.
All in all, Proctor has great value for where he’s projected. One of the highest ceilings out of prospects projected in the second round.
Dereck Lively II
Dereck Lively’s rapid improvement from the start of this season has made him the marquee freshman to watch at Duke. Coming out of high school, Lively was ranked the top center in the nation, the top prospect in his region, and the top prospect in the nation by ESPN. Scouts were swept away by his imposing fluidity, athleticism, and high motor for a 7-footer, all of which making him by far the best defender/rim protector in his class. Joining a star-studded Duke squad, anticipation was sky high. Unfortunately for Lively, he would suffer a calf injury before the season began, sidelining him for multiple preseason games and practices. Coming off the bench, Lively would return by Duke’s second regular season game. In his first 15 games, he would average 16mpg, which is low considering not only was he the top prospect coming in, but Duke’s starters consisted of mostly freshmen anyways. It was a rough start, constantly getting into foul trouble despite the low minutes, and failing to make any positive impact on either side of the floor. It was on his 15th game, against Pitt, that Lively began to show the flashes folks were so excited about. There wasn’t much on the box score: Fouled out with 6 points, 4 rebounds, and 1 assist. Yet, Lively recorded a team-best 88 dRTG, demonstrating his ability as a defensive anchor and rim protector. Duke’s defense with Lively was night and day to whenever Ryan Young was on the floor, the senior starting big. Lively’s length and near perfect rotations bothered Pitt’s offense, shutting down the easy shots they were able to get with Young was on the floor. He’d go on to do the same thing the very next game against Clemson. There were only four times Clemson scored from inside when Lively was on the floor. Clemson made great adjustments, exploiting his drop coverage by shooting floaters, but nonetheless, it was great to see Lively force a good offense out of rhythm, and into lower percentage shots.
On offense, there isn’t much to Lively’s game yet. He’s not much of a self-creator and depends on his guards to create opportunities for him. Hence why his game improved as Proctor took over as the primary ball-handler. Most of his scoring comes from second chance points, transition, and lobs. Lively’s playing style doesn’t fit with Duke’s offense, where pnr’s are run to create mismatches for guards, not to hit the roller. Duke’s backcourt does a great job with entry passes, but Lively isn’t a post scorer now. Tyrese Proctor has had some excellent possessions with Lively in the pnr, but those are far and few between. On the upside, Lively is an unselfish big, always looking for an open man to kick out to. His limited offense has hindered his playing time, as Coach Scheyer is willing to risk playing Ryan Young for his production on offense, over Lively’s lockdown defense. To get his buckets, Lively has had to force the issue, whether it’s going after offensive rebounds, or leaking out in transition.
Offense, however, isn’t what makes Dereck Lively a projected first round pick. It’s his dominance as a rim protector and function as a defensive anchor. Lively isn’t a traditionally sized rim protector. He’s a modern big, sporting a thin frame akin to Evan Mobley and Nic Claxton. He’s most effective as a roamer defending the paint, but he’s shown the capability to guard from outside. On switches, Lively does a fantastic job staying in front of shifty, much smaller guards. His overall navigation is what’s most impressive. Lively maintains a presence of mind to shield off passing lanes to the roller as he’s defending the ball-handler, essentially guarding two at once. His mobility and length allow him to make timely recoveries, even altering shots, without fouling. The same meticulous awareness Lively has on defense applies to his rebounding, specifically his offensive rebounding. He’s intentional about his box outs, always locating his man to seal off before going for the board. Because he doesn’t have the raw strength to out muscle bigs, so to counter, Lively gets very low on his box outs. Using his verticality and length, he explodes off the ground, beating guys to the glass. He’s only averaging 4.7 rebounds per game, but his impact around the rim is the reason why Duke ranks 13th in the nation in OREB.
This extends into his incredible shot blocking. Yes, he’s 7’1” with an insane 7’8” wingspan, but there’s more to elite shot blocking than length. It’s his footwork, timing, and precision that makes him an elite shot blocker. He can block and contest jumpers almost as well as he does under the rim. His ability to anticipate, adjust, and execute without fouling is special. Even against bigger guys, Lively can absorb contact and affect shots.
The offense is raw, but his elite rim protection and athleticism makes him valuable on any team. A perfect rotation big that provides real defense.