I Spy 4.0 - Duke Edition! Part 2
Kyle Filipowski
As Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively sat on the sidelines, Kyle Filipowski quickly rose as Duke’s star player. The 7’0”, 230-lb big led the Blue Devils in points, rebounds, and steals per game all season. One of the more intriguing draft prospects in general, there’s a lot about Filipowski’s game that those who have watched close really like, and others really don’t like. Generally projected between late lottery and mid-twenties, there’s a ton to get into about Filipowski’s game.
To start, Filipowski has had to adjust this season playing alongside another big. Taking advantage of his shooting talent and maximizing length in the front court, Coach Scheyer moved Filipowski to the four, a territory unfamiliar for Filipowski, who’s played his career at the five. Spacing can be horrid for Duke offensively, but it’s been a charm for their defense, which ranks first in the ACC (dRTG), above Miami and Virginia, two nationally ranked teams.
Offensively, there’s a lot to his game. Filipowski can score from anywhere on the court, using a variety of moves to get to his spots. Filipowski has no issue embracing contact, driving into defenders, or rising for contested layups. At times it’s to his detriment, many of his turnovers being offensive fouls. Nonetheless, it’s good to see a 7-foot, 230-lb player capitalize on his size advantage, even if he’s not a traditional five. Although Filipowski is primarily a post-scorer, he doesn’t use too many post-moves outside of backing down the defender or quick spins. Instead of floaters, fadeaways, jump hooks, up and under, or face-up jumpers, Flip goes for contact-heavy moves to get his buckets. It’s made him quite inefficient from inside, only converting 49.2% 2pt. He’s one of seven players, and the only freshman in the nation at 6’11” or taller, that’s shooting below 50% from 2pt. Not good. He has the tools, but he must be smarter about his shot selection.
Teams know Filipowski can be tunneled visioned on scoring at the basket out of the low post, so now he’s experiencing double-teams and traps off the entry pass. This is where he’s struggled substantially. Virginia trapped Filipowski every time he got the ball in the post, completely shutting him down. He finished that game with 0 points and 5 turnovers. Embiid early in his NBA career was a back to the basket player, and faced the same coverage Filipowski is now. Lots of traps, relentless double-teams, and generating a lot of turnovers. Eventually, Embiid developed into a face-up player. He could see the floor, he wasn’t blind to coverages, and his jumper was easier to get to. His efficiency increased, and the turnovers decreased. Filipowski is nowhere close to an Embiid, but that’s a part of Embiid’s game Filipowski could use to improve his game.
Filipowski has had his moments from the perimeter, but he’s shooing 28.6% 3pt on 98 total attempts. In his first 10 games, Filipowski was shooting 36.1% 3pt on three attempts, which is great for a big. He quickly entered a shooting “slump” the following 10 games, shooting 22.5% 3pt on nearly four attempts. In his last 9 games, he’s shooting a marginally improved 28% 3pt, but at this point, it’s hard to say he’ll ever be an effect perimeter shooter at the next level. He has good form, but lacks shooting touch, a problem that has also hindered his midrange shooting. If he’s committed to improving his shot, and the organization that lands on him stands behind him, he certainly has the upside of becoming a legitimate deep threat.
A lot of areas of growth for Filipowski, but there’s still significant upside for him. He’d likely return to playing at the five in the league and combining his ability to attack space with his shooting upside, Filipowski could serve as a versatile roller in pnr schemes. Even if the perimeter shooting doesn’t improve considerably, his passing in the short roll at Duke has been incredible. Filipowski’s vision is one of the underrated parts of his game. He’s averaging 2.6 turnovers a game while only dishing 1.5 assists per game, so it’s understandable why it’s underrated. Nevertheless, Filipowski demonstrates great vision in the paint, whether it’s finding a cutter or hitting the big in the dunker spot after the defense collapses on him.
As a defender, Filipowski has been great for Duke. Duke switches nearly everything, so Filipowski has had plenty of reps guarding 1-5. Out on the perimeter or inside the paint, there’s no area on the court Filipowski has shown to be a bad defender. While he has flashes in certain areas defensively, what’s most impressive is his versatility as defender at 7-feet tall. He’s been serviceable for the Blue Devils all-around, no matter the assignment.
On-ball, Filipowski has had most of his reps against guards and small forwards on the perimeter. His two biggest strengths this season have been disrupting passing lanes and shutting down slashers. He moves his feet quite well and uses his length quite well to disturb passes and drives from above the break (averaging 1.2 steals per game). Filipowski’s biggest struggle now is staying in front of shifty players and recovering to stay involved in the possession. Filipowski does defend well against shot creators, specifically those who use sudden change in pace and direction to create space on shots. He just doesn’t have the mobility and quickness in his feet and hips to keep with them. When he’s beat off the dribble, Filipowski can get the block, but most times he’s too slow transitioning into the sprint. Teams will likely only want him to guard 3-5.
As a help-defender, Filipowski does well fill the gaps and recovering. He’s been most valuable for Duke as help against post-dominant bigs like Armando Bacot or DJ Burns love to attack Ryan Young, Duke’s backup big. He communicates well on the floor and is quick to plug defensive breakdowns. Filipowski’s effort on defense is always there.
Overall, significant upside remains for Filipowski. He has the knowledge and fundamentals to scale into a starting two-way big, but concerns around his touch and decision making in the post and at the rim remain. As he becomes stronger, the finishing should improve, and many of his heavily contested layups will earn his trips to the free throw line in the NBA. Where Filipowski lands in the draft is unclear. Teams may find his raw self-creation enticing, or too much of a gamble for a top-20 pick investment.
Mark Mitchell
Mark Mitchell is most likely out of the Duke freshman to return next season. He’s had a solid and productive season, but there’s a few things Mitchell must improve on before he’s deemed draft-ready.
Mitchell has been a pillar to Duke’s success this season. His game doesn’t stand out, averaging 9.9/4.4/1.2, but it’s not about Mitchell’s volume. It’s about his unique contributions to a talented and high-powered Duke squad.
He’s a high motor, head-down, scrappy player. He’s aggressive getting to the rim, unbothered by the defenders guarding him. It’s not Mitchell’s dribble, athleticism, nor quickness that makes him so dangerous downhill, but rather his physicality and sheer determination to get to the rim. He plays strong, embraces contact on drives, and can finish through multiples defenders. The finishing hasn’t been particularly strong, but the flashes are there. Crossovers and the occasional spin move into the lay has been the go-to for Mitchell. Again, nothing elite, but it creates enough of an advantage for Mitchell to capitalize off.
From the perimeter, Mitchell is serviceable, shooting 35.2% 3pt on 54 total attempts. It’s too low of a volume to make any conclusions on how he’ll shoot in the NBA, but he’s a stationary 3pt shooter now. Mitchell doesn’t have the mechanics or shot form to comfortably shoot threes off the dribble and off movement. It’s low arch, lacks touch, and doesn’t translate at all in shorter distances. At large, Mitchell will likely never be a high-volume scorer, and that’s fine. His creation downhill and upside as a C&S is more than enough for his projected role. The big question is his 3pt shot. It seems likely Mitchell will stay another year at Duke. The jump-shot his sophomore year at Duke is the area most will want to see a relatively large improvement in. Either in volume or percentage.
With Filipowski, Lively, and Young on the team, there isn’t much to spare in the rebounds category, but Mitchell has showcased an ability to rise and snatch up boards against larger players. Thanks to Mitchell’s lengthy 7’2” wingspan, Mitchell has the reach other guys at 6’8” tall simply don’t. He’s become valuable for Duke on defensive rebounds, when the bigs are typically out of position.
Defense is where Mitchell truly shines. Going back to his 7’2” wingspan, his length has proved trouble for wings, and even guards, who like to attack the paint. Mitchell is a very active defender, from his hands to his feet. Mitchell has great hip mobility and decent lateral quickness, allowing him to keep up shot creators. Even when he’s beat, Mitchell has demonstrated phenomenal recovery skills, rarely giving up straight line drives to the basket. He’s quick to recognize when he’s beat and makes it a point to beat his man to the spot and force him straight to the baseline. Off-ball, Mitchell has been great for Duke on closeouts, especially on corner threes. He can sag-off into the paint, recognize the swing pass is coming, and is there to contest by the time his man gets the ball to shoot. One thing to notice is Mitchell almost always angles his body on closeouts. The angling keeps him from fouling, but it also seals off lanes that would otherwise be available if he closed out in an open stance. Taking opponents out their comfort zone, forcing low quality shots, Mitchell has been dominant as an on-ball defender.