I Spy Guards - Class of 2024
Three guard prospects that could potentially rise above preseason expectations.
Aden Holloway
Auburn commit Aden Holloway is a 6’0, 155-lbs point guard from North Carolina with a lot to prove. Although undersized, Holloway has stood out as one of the best shooters and shot creators in the class. Under Bruce Pearl at Auburn, a head coach and program very familiar with undersized guards, Holloway has an opportunity to substantiate his name among the 2024 draft class.
For small guards, shot-creation is a prerequisite to be regarded as a lottery prospect, let alone first-round. Without the inherent advantage of size, these small guards must become masters in shot-making and ball-handling, along with the creativity and footwork to generate between defenders to get their shot off. Aden Holloway passes that barometer with flying colors.
Starting with his three-ball, Holloway is unafraid, with unlimited range and versatility as a shooter. To compensate for his lack of height and athleticism, Holloway has developed as a reliable three-ball in almost every facet of an offense. In the pick-and-roll and on-ball situations in general, Holloway does a good job of exploiting open space defenders give him. Whether it’s drop bigs off a switch or a defender going under the screen, Holloway has the skill to make them pay. His level of shot-making establishes a unique category of gravity that requires defenders to guard him from half-court.
Off-ball, Holloway does a good job finding pockets of the floor that provide easy reads for his teammates. Whether it’s relocating around the perimeter or cutting to the basket off a rebound, Holloway is always there. The team, in general, did a good job of moving the ball and themselves around the floor, avoiding stagnant half-court possessions.
Defensively, there are limitations to Holloway due to his size and athleticism, but that hasn’t stopped him from making plays on that end. He’s a fierce on-ball (POA) defender, particularly in isolation situations. His lateral quickness and hip flexibility grant him maneuverability and twitch that most guards don’t have. However, this applies strictly to matchups against guards, as Holloway is entirely ineffective against wings and bigs. He doesn’t have the strength, length, nor size to hold up against bigger players. Holloway has great hands, but his wingspan makes it nearly impossible to produce an adequate contest.
AJ Johnson
AJ Johnson is one of many prospects among the 2024 class who have chosen a path to the NBA outside the NCAA. Johnson decommitted from the University of Texas in April and announced his signing with the overseas professional league NBL (National Basketball League) in Australia. The 6’6, 160-lbs guard will have the opportunity to hone and showcase his talents against professional players in a professional environment and system.
The first thing that jumps out when looking at AJ Johnson is his size. Johnson is incredibly thin. He’s often compared to Jalen Green, but even Green wasn’t this thin coming out of high school. While his thin frame is something to monitor, it hasn’t stopped him from getting buckets. Johnson’s quickness, explosiveness, and shiftiness all combine to create an above-the-rim combo-guard who can get a paint touch at will.
Johnson has an incredibly diverse scoring arsenal. His biggest advantage against defenses has been his impeccable speed and burst. Johnson does a great job utilizing his speed in transition, immediately picking up the pace to establish easy scoring opportunities. His first step in the half court is a dangerous one, particularly in the pick-and-roll. His long strides through drives allow him to cover the court in an efficient yet quick manner. He’s comfortable driving with both hands and isn’t afraid of contact throughout. Johnson also has a positive handle, and although it can be a bit ostentatious, it has largely been effective. Johnson showed an improved jumper in his final year, from both the midrange and around the arc. He hasn’t fully developed his perimeter shot-making off-the-dribble, but Johnson demonstrated that he’s more than a capable shooter off-the-catch.
Defensively, Johnson has the raw tools to be an impactful defender, but major refinement is needed to get there. Due to Johnson’s thin frame, there’s little margin for error, particularly as he guards up against wings. He’s an adequate screen navigator and has shown flashes of recovery instincts in transition. On-ball, his quick lateral movement shines, allowing him to stick with other quick, shifty guards around the perimeter as well as on drives. He does a fine job of keeping his hands up and avoiding fouls on drives. His body offers little to no resistance against players, but it’s solid technique nonetheless, and it will improve as he adds muscle and weight.
Off-ball, Johnson has the right intentions, but his positioning and execution need significant improvement. Johnson sags incredibly deep off his matchups in an attempt to make a play along passing lanes, but this only creates easy reads and open shots for opposing teams. This occurs especially in zone defense, making his closeouts and recoveries that much harder.
DeShawn Harris-Smith
Don’t be surprised if DeShawn Harris-Smith’s name comes up in lottery conversations in this draft class. He’s a prospect that’s flown under the radar for far too long. In a guard class that lacks prospects with both size and shot-making talent, Smith has a great opportunity to stand out amongst the crowd. At 6’5, 190-lbs, Smith has the tools to be an impact player much sooner than later.
Smith is a cerebral yet aggressive scorer with the plasticity to score both within an offense and on his own. His greatest asset at the moment is his handle. It’s the gateway to his scoring, whether in the pick-and-roll or in isolation. Smith creates a ton of east-west swing on his dribbles, leading to a pull-up jumper or a strong drive to the rim. It’s more functional than eccentric, allowing him to comfortably navigate through defenders at his own determined pace. He’s still developing his three-ball, but the stepback mechanics are certainly there from a footwork/handle perspective.
Smith is at his best when going downhill. He’s very comfortable shooting pull-up mid-range shots, but if possible, Smith is looking to attack the rim. Both in transition and half-court, Smith has a knack for maneuvering through and around traffic at a fast yet intentional pace. Specifically in the pick-and-roll, Smith’s advantage perception is among the best in the class. Smith also has phenomenal foul craft, with a 0.480 FTr (Free Throw rate). The perimeter shooting isn’t there yet, but his advanced midrange shot-making along with his touch gives confidence that the three-point shot will fall with time.
As a passer, Smith is acutely talented in what’s now regarded as a lost art: Entry passes. The dexterity and accuracy in his entry passes make the game very easy for bigs. His passing aptitude isn’t limited to one specific action, as he’s comfortable and willing to make plays for others in a multitude of actions (or lack thereof). It isn’t perfect, but the processing and effort are consistent.
Defensively, Smith is heavy-footed, which, in turn, makes the role as a point-of-attack (POA) defender quite difficult for him. He bites hard on shot fakes and jab steps, and often resorts to sagging off his matchup whenever he anticipates a screen. At times, Smith will also press up a bit too hard, allowing for easy blow-bys. Unfortunately, Smith hasn’t demonstrated any capability as a recovery defender, often looking for a teammate to switch and bail him out. While his weight may be an advantage on offense, it’s clearly slowed his lateral speed and burst, to the point where he feels the need to overcompensate by either playing too close in anticipation of a shot attempt or too far in anticipation of a drive. The mechanics and overall process as a defender need improvement before he can be considered a viable starter.