This revised edition of He Is Not A Hooper’s NBA Draft Big Board follows a chaotic, whirlwind of an NBA lottery. The Dallas Mavericks conquered the Monday night event, winning the lottery despite 11th best odds (1.8% chance), securing the opportunity to draft NCAA Men’s Basketball Player of the Year, and consensus No.1 prospect, 18-year-old 6’9 forward Cooper Flagg. Lady Luck also made a visit to the San Antonio Spurs, who won the No.2 overall pick with 8th best odds (6.8% chance). Consequently, the team’s best-favored to win the night, owners of the worst overall record for the regular season—the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards, were dealt the worst possible hand. The Utah Jazz received the 5th overall pick, and the Washington Wizards 6th.
As the lottery order stands at a complete 180 from expectations—a play-in team in possession of the #1 overall pick, while a team failing to win 20 games in an 82 game season left outside the top 5, establishing who’s the best talent available is imperative. Struggling franchises like the Washington Wizards, New Orleans Pelicans, and Brooklyn Nets must identify who’s best of the remaining.
The He Is Not A Hooper’s NBA Draft Big Board is arranged with NBA translation as the point of emphasis. Talent is essential, yes, but as an obsessed fan of the Houston Rockets, I’ve witnessed the shortcomings of talent by itself. Talent alone cannot overcome NBA physicality, game speed, and its ever growing complexity. The prospects that translate the best from college/international into the NBA possess a set of baseline skills that then expand with NBA experience and development.
The particulars that encompass “baseline skills” vary by role and position. For guards, it is a pull-up three *and* a dependable handle is what I consider a baseline skill. For Wings/Forwards, it is a catch-and-shoot three, and/or respectable downhill creation. For Bigs, it’s screening and rolling. There are always exceptions to the rules, a handful a prospects so talented in specific aspects that the absence of baseline skills is effectively ignored. Those prospects are explained as “raw”.
To the best of my ability, I’ve followed this philosophy to order this cycle of prospects from strongest to weakest, those most likely to succeed to those most likely to fizzle out.
SYMBOL GLOSSARY
Roles
Primary: Initiators of the offense. Typically whoever is taking the ball up the floor, directing the offense. Primary ball-handlers usually run a relatively high volume of PnR (e.g., Jayson Tatum, Fred Van Vleet, Donovan Mitchell).
Secondary: Secondary initiators on offense. Increased off-ball scoring, with scaled down ball-handling duties (e.g., DeJounte Murray, Jamal Murray, De’Aaron Fox).
Shot Creator: Specializes in high-volume isolation and PnR perimeter/downhill scoring (e.g., Luka Doncic, Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Brunson).
Play Finisher: Off ball scorers with minimal roles as facilitators (e.g., Trey Murphy III, Michael Porter Jr, Cam Whitmore).
C&S: Perimeter-dominant scorers who shoot from a standstill (e.g., Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, OG Anunoby).
Movement Shooter: Perimeter dominant scorers with the ability to score off-screens (e.g., Bogdan Bogdanovic, Luke Kennard, Sam Merrill).
Roll Big - Bigs whose offense is overwhelmingly assisted, generating offense as rollers and cutters (e.g., Clint Capela, Daniel Gafford, Nicholas Claxton).
Versatile Big: Bigs whose offense can scale outside the paint, by way of perimeter scoring or post-play (e.g., Chet Holmgren, Karl Anthony-Towns, Kristaps Porzingis).