Prospect Complexity: Anthony Black

Coming into the 2022-23 season, expectations were high for Arkansas. The AP Top 25 poll predicted them finishing 10th in the nation, and Sports Illustrated had the Razorbacks reaching 7th. The season didn’t pan out as many expected, but it became clear at the end that Black was the best player Arkansas had.

Anthony Black wasn’t the only NBA prospect Arkansas had. He was one of three five-star prospects coming into Arkansas and one of five Razorbacks expected to declare for the 2023 draft. As the starting point guard, Black was responsible for managing all the talent on the floor, ensuring not only the team win, but making sure everyone gets a chance to show off their talents. Black fits this role perfectly, as he’s a (relatively) low-usage, pass-first primary ball-handler.

As a 6’7” point guard, Anthony Black is a mismatch against most backcourts. These mismatches aren’t just creating potential scoring advantages, but defensive and playmaking advantages as well. Having the edge in these two areas makes Black a coveted prospect in a very deep draft.

Anthony Black and the Razorbacks found most of their success this season on the defensive end, ranking 17th nationwide in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. As the first line of defense, Black did wonders for Arkansas.

Consistently creating easy offense from great defense is an undervalued asset, and it’s something Black thrives at doing. He’s a brilliant transition player, using a plethora of techniques to manipulate defenses midcourt to open up opportunities for himself and his teammates. Black averaged 2.1 steals per game at Arkansas, with a three-time season high of five steals. From entry passes to dribble hand-offs, Black does a great job disrupting ball movement both on-ball and off. Black’s activity above the foul line and along the break proved invaluable to Arkansas's high-pressure defense. Black has just enough length to contest jumpers and even earn a few blocks at the rim, averaging 0.6 blocks per game. His standout performance was in the SEC conference tournament, logging a season-high 4 blocks, a game that perfectly epitomizes Black’s defensive instincts and upside.

With high-pressure defense comes the risk of foul trouble. Black throughout the season had a habit of running into serious foul trouble against teams with 3pt shooters that attack closeouts. Alabama, Kansas, and Texas A&M were all teams Black struggled to stay on the floor against. His rabid activity defensively is encouraged, but it leaves him susceptible to tick-tack blocking/shooting fouls. His reactive footwork allows him to contest jumpers at a moment, while being able to slide quickly, sticking to defenders on drives. However, that reactive footwork makes him a liability against shifty/crafty guards that use shot fakes and hesitation moves to create space. Black bites on nearly everything, which is something he’ll have to improve on to become a consistent defender.

Off-ball Black maintains his high motor, but around screens is where his intensity and effectiveness tend to fall off. Black in general struggles to accelerate off contact, an issue highlighted whenever he’s attempting to recover to his man after bumping into a screen. Black also is a fairly avid ball-watcher, a weakness UConn exploited in the NCAA Tournament with a multitude of cutting movements.

As a playmaker, Black is one the best in this class, with a great eye for creating easy buckets for his teammates, particularly the bigs. Averaging 3.9 assists per game, Black earned most of his assists out the pick-and-roll. Just as he possesses great defensive instincts, Black has a great feel on the offensive side as well. In the pick-and-roll, Black has great timing and execution on his passing, understanding how to draw the help defense long enough to forge an open look for the roller. Black isn’t restricted to passes from singular windows. He’s a precise passer, consistently hitting the roller in stride, even through tight windows. Black’s adaptability to defenses keeps actions alive that was schemed to be shut down. One of his best passes punishes teams that look to aggressively hedge the pnr. As the screener’s defender comes up to hedge, essentially doubling Black. The low man (the defender covering the weak side corner) must rotate to guard the screener, who by then is rolling to the basket. This action leaves the corner guy wide open, and Black reads it almost every time. Finding the open weak side corner three from the top of the key is elite playmaking. Few ball handlers play with the pace, accuracy, or confidence to make that skip pass.

Aside from the pnr, Black loves to drive and kick. Black likes to attack the paint whenever defenses aren’t fully set. It either generates an easy lane to the basket or collapses the defense, giving his teammates wide-open looks from the perimeter.

Black is a pass-first ball-handler, which has its advantages as his passing pressure keeps defenses on their toes, but it also overcomplicates possessions. Along with the 3.9 assists he averaged, Black also averaged 3.0 turnovers per game. Most of his high turnover games are due to offensive fouls and diving after loose balls, but Black is liable to make careless passes. His worst passes come from inside the paint, where Black tends to make rushed and inaccurate reads. Black is a great passer on drive and kicks, but that’s primarily on possessions that he plans to pass. The quality of his passing takes a noticeable drop whenever he’s in the paint and is no longer looking to score. This isn’t an indictment on his passing, but rather on his scoring. His lack of self-creation and adaptability in traffic makes him liable to turnovers, hence the offensive fouls and bad passes.

Black’s offense is a mixed bag. He has the playmaking chops of a point guard, but his scoring leans more toward that of a wing. Without a reliable jumper/floater off the dribble, Black’s self-creation in the half-court is limited to slashing. The issue for Black is he lacks the first step or craftiness to generate separation and navigate around help defense. The intangibles that make a slasher a good to great one, Black, unfortunately, doesn’t have. It's why Black has always been used as a finisher, dating back to his high school days. Getting buckets by way of cuts, putbacks, spot-ups, and attacking hard closeouts.

The biggest area Black will have to improve is his outside shooting. Black shot 30.1% 3pt on 2.6 attempts at Arkansas. He can’t be a non-spacer at the wing There’s a lot of work to be done with his jumper in general, but the shot form should suffice for catch-and-shoot threes. Black needs defenders to respect his shot to do what he wants, which is getting downhill.

Black averaged 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, with 49.5% eFG and 54.5% TS splits. The substantial boost in efficiency comes from Black’s uncanny ability to get to the line, finishing out the season with an insane 57.8% FTr. Black is constantly feeling defenders out for an opportunity to draw a foul. His defense and foul craft should keep him on the floor as he develops utility as a scorer.

There’s a lot to look forward to about Black. The intangibles Black possesses, and the motor he comes out on the floor with, is incredibly difficult to teach. He has the motor and IQ to become a great player. Advancing his game as an off-ball scorer transforms him into a very high-end secondary ball-handler. A playmaking wing like Black has the potential to work wonders for a team’s offense.