Prospect Complexity: Brandon Miller

At the center of the draft discourse lies Brandon Miller of the University of Alabama. From his on-court success to his off-court drama, Miller has been the most controversial prospect in the class. Coming into the season, AP projected Alabama as a top-25 program at 20, but their dominance throughout the season was certainly unexpected.

Under Head Coach Nate Oat’s system, Alabama’s offense contained exclusively threes and dunks, optimizing for high shot quality and peak efficiency. Their roster was stacked, bringing in top transfers from the portal, and top recruits like Jaden Bradley, Noah Clowney, and of course, Brandon Miller. From practices and scrimmages alone, Brandon Miller was the consensus best player on the Alabama squad. So, what did the folks down in Tuscaloosa see that made them so confident about the freshmen?

Many things go into Miller’s game, some things that are common among freshmen prospects, and other things that are unique to him. To encapsulate the type of player Miller has become, it’s best to start with his offense. Brandon Miller is best known for his 3pt shooting, and a great shooter. Throughout the regular season, Miller made it clear he was one of the best shooting prospects in the class, shooting 40.4% 3pt on 7.4 attempts per game. Stepbacks, pull-ups, catch & shoot, pump fakes, sidesteps, movement threes, Miller showed it all. The shot versatility combined with the efficiency is rare, given his height. Early into the season, Miller became the focal point of Bama’s high-strung offense, and it was a resounding success. Miller averaged 19.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists in the first two months of the season on 58.9% TS. His command from the 3pt line was overwhelming for teams, scoring a game-high 36 points against Gonzaga. But it’s not just his shooting that makes him the scorer he is. There are three main pillars to Miller’s offense: Sharpshooting, Rebounds, and Free-throws.

Miller easily qualifies as one of the best shooters in the class and even may qualify as one of the best shooting prospects in the last decade. Miller has a quick, low, fluid release, allowing him to get his shot off in almost any position. He can shoot off-screen, in transition, catch-and-shoot, relocation threes, and off the dribble. There’s a ton of utility to his shot, making him very scalable on the floor. Miller was one of two freshmen this season to attempt over 250 threes, and the only one shooting at least 38% 3pt. He’s been in a league of his own this season in terms of volume and accuracy. It’s rare for freshmen to attempt so many threes, and it’s even rarer to shoot that well on said volume. He’s among 11 freshmen in the last decade with over 250 three-point attempts while shooting at least 38% 3pt. For context, Isaiah Joe, Jamal Murray, and Malik Monk also qualified for this list. It’s easy to see why a 6’9” forward making a list dominated by shooting guards is a projected top 5 pick. Looking at the wings in the league today, the ones that can shoot at an above-average clip are at the very minimum, valuable rotation pieces on playoff teams. The shooting alone makes him attractive to teams.

Rebounding is an underrated part of Miller’s game, and rebounding in general is an undervalued skill when evaluating prospects. Alabama was a strong rebounding team, ranking 10th/1st in the nation in offensive/defensive respectively. They had a strong frontcourt in Nick Pringle, Charles Bediako, and Noah Clowney, but Miller’s contribution was slightly different. Miller’s rebounding speaks to his motor and all-out effort as a player. Miller typically can’t grab boards, and he’s certainly not strong enough to box out bigs under the basket. However, Miller has been one of the best at rising, stretching out, and crashing the boards. There were even games he’d follow up his 3pt misses for putbacks. The hustle he has as a rebounder isn’t expected of a three-point specialist like Miller, but he does it anyways. Averaging 8.2 rebounds per game, Miller led Alabama in total boards and 2nd in offensive rebounds. Anyone who watched Alabama understood that their ability to prolong possessions with offensive boards was a critical part of their offense. Miller was a big contributor to that.

Another part of Miller’s game that has gone under the radar is his foul craft. He’s one of four freshmen in the last decade to shoot at least seven 3PA and four FTA per game while maintaining a minimum 58% TS (NBA League-Average). Two of those other freshmen are Oklahoma Trae Young and Kentucky Wildcat Jamal Murray. One of Miller’s largest weaknesses is his capacity as a scorer in the paint. The issue is multifaceted, but generally, Miller lacks the strength in his upper body, and power in his low body to drive and finish through contact. However, his three-point shot-making, aggressive rebounding, and overall length have created opportunities for Miller to draw fouls. Towards the end of the season, Miller leaned heavily on hostage dribbles, shot fakes, and slow pace to throw defenders out of rhythm as he was driving to the cup. Drawing fouls became easier, as he’d catch defenders in the air or on his hip.

Those three aspects of his offense shaped Miller to become the freshmen leader in total points and points per game. However, as pointed out earlier, there are frailties in his game. Miller’s physique specifically has been the big drawback when evaluating Miller. Physique/strength isn’t a weakness unique to Miller, but in context to his age, size, and the severity to which it’s restricted him on the floor, it’s been a larger concern for him and others. Miller is 6’9”, 200-lbs, which isn’t necessarily undersized (Emoni Bates is listed as 6’10” and 170 lbs for context), but there was a clear pattern of Miller being ineffective as a scorer against physical defenses like Houston, Tennessee, and San Diego State. All season he was below average as a paint scorer, shooting 39% on layups in the halfcourt, due to his thin frame, slow footspeed, balance, and glaring lack of power in his core/legs. In the postseason, these deficiencies were catching up to him, as they weren’t just affecting his interior scoring, but his perimeter scoring as well. In the SEC and National tournament, Miller averaged 14.8 points per game, shooting an abysmal 29.2% 3pt on 8 attempts, and 34.2% 2pt on 6.3 attempts. Teams were no longer giving him to operate freely, guarding him at halfcourt if he had the ball in his hands. When faced with these intense, high-press defenses, Miller struggled to create space and generate quality looks for himself. He resorted to rushed 3pt shots off the catch or off screens, throwing his rhythm off. In the NBA, Miller won’t immediately face these types of coverages, but it’s good to see how he reacted to them.

For Miller to reach his upside as an all-star and potentially an all-NBA player, he must develop his game as a ball-handler. He’s shown flashes throughout the regular season, but against top teams in the post-season, his high dribble and slow crossovers were food for defenders.

Going into his shooting motion, Miller has a relatively low release compared to other “elite” ≥ 6’8” shooters. He doesn’t shoot over his head but has a quick, fluid form starting from his hips to the front of his face. Despite his height, Miller is not one to shoot over anyone like Brandon Ingram or Jabari Smith Jr, but he has the confidence to shoot tight contested threes. Miller’s bread and butter were shooting threes immediately off the screen, taking advantage of his quick release and height to make it incredibly difficult for defenders to navigate the screen and contest his shot. Nonetheless, Miller ran into problems against tougher teams. For one, Miller had a habit of shooting off balance, a problem that worsened as the season waned on and teams became more physical. As he rises for the shot, his body can sway, and as he lands, his feet land wherever. On tougher, contested jumpers, Miller’s feet tend to land with one foot in front of another, contorting his body sideways. It’s important to point this out, as it’s extremely rare for great shooters like Miller to have such poor balance on their shots. It’ll become clear when he’s in the league how this affects his shots over the span of 82 games, but it’s a concern now.

Defensively Miller was one of the most consistent players in the class. He isn’t a high-end defensive prospect like Jarace Walker or Taylor Hendricks, but Miller displayed meaningful flashes as an on-ball and transition defender. Miller has long arms, allowing him to poke the ball from dribblers, which creates an opportunity to turn defense into easy offense. Due to his frame and foot speed, Miller isn’t a versatile wing defender who’s able to guard 1-4, but he still provides value when defending his position.

Miller has found most of his shortcomings on the defensive end as a screen navigator. Miller is slow to get over top of screens, and even slower as he’s recovering. Head Coach Nate Oats knew this and frequently hid him in the corner against high-power offenses like Gonzaga and UConn. Miller’s also susceptible to shot fakes and hesis, but this comes from him sagging off his assignments, looking to help defend. At times he sags too deep, forcing him to leap toward three-point shooters if he wants to get a good contest. On the positive, Miller uses his wingspan to work around screens and contest pick and pops.

Miller’s greatest strength defensively is his transition defense. Averaging 0.9 blocks per game, almost all of them have come from chase-down blocks. He’s not a weakside rim protector, nor is he using his length to block jumpers, but his recovery defense has saved Alabama a ton of possessions. It’s nothing special in his technique, it’s simply Miller’s motor that’s pushing him to make these extra plays.

What’s really separated Brandon Miller from other shooting prospects in this class like Gradey Dick or Jordan Hawkins is his capacity as a playmaker. Miller averaged 2.1 assists per game, with a season-high of five. Those aren’t distinguishable numbers as a wing, but Miller’s ability as a passer is about the quality and processing rather than the volume. There were a few games where Miller was given the role of “Point Forward”. In each of those games, Miller demonstrated his capacity as a ball-handler in the pnr, leveraging his height and length to make unique and timely reads to the roller and weakside corner. While having an on-ball role lowers his shot quality from the three, it does open driving lanes and space for his teammates.

Overall, there’s a ton of upside for Brandon Miller, whether he falls into a Trey Murphy III role as a 3&D wing, or reaches his ceiling as a Point Forward, like a role Brandon Ingram has taken on. The main takeaway is with his insane performances and numbers this year, there is still significant progress Miller must undergo to meet expectations, especially if he’s taken above the talents of a Scoot Henderson or the Thompson twins.