Prospect Complexity: Cam Whitmore
Through a mixed bag of a season at Villanova, Whitmore had broken out as a projected top 5 pick in the draft. Villanova finished with an underwhelming 17-17 record, losing in the second round against Creighton in the Big East tournament, and the first round against Liberty in the NIT. This terrible season comes after a terrific 30-8 record in 2021-22, in which Villanova won the Big East and made their second-straight Final Four appearance.
Despite the success, future Hall-of-Fame coach Jay Wright would depart from the program after 21 seasons, leaving the 2023 season in the hands of rookie head coach Kyle Neptune. As a rookie head coach, Neptune had a lot to learn. The players also had a lot to learn. When prospects come into a prestigious program like Villanova, there's a core system in place that everyone is familiar with, from assistant coaches to veteran players. The learning curve can be steep for freshmen, but with the support of their upperclassmen and coaching staff, the transition becomes easier. Whitmore didn't have that. Everyone was learning and adapting to the Neptune system, not just him. Naturally, it took a while for Whitmore to find his groove within this developing system, just as it took his teammates and coaches a while to understand his abilities and how best to utilize them within the schemes.
The biggest asset to Whitmore's game is his athleticism. His combination of lateral and vertical abilities easily places him in the 99th percentile among athletes. His agility, balance, speed, strength, power, and overall maneuverability all come together in his game, which adds up to scoring creation that would otherwise be impossible without his athletic talent. Cognizant of his athletic edge, Whitmore went after every bit of space defenders gave him. Whitmore created an insane amount of rim pressure, averaging 4.7 possessions at the rim while converting 64.5% FG in the half-court. At 6’7, 232 lbs, Whitmore could bully his way through defenders on drives while finishing through contact at the rim. He wasn’t just a straight-line driver, however. Whitmore could get downhill and finish with both hands, along with creating a bit of space with his crossovers and stepbacks. The dribble moves weren't all the way there, but it was just enough to carve out angles against defenders and then leverage his speed and strength to reach the basket. He averaged 12 points per game on a 55% effective field goal percentage (eFG%).
Whitmore has generally been perceived as a one-dimensional player. He averaged 0.7 assists at Villanova, placing him dead last among small forward prospects in assists and assist percentage. When looking at past freshmen prospects with his level of usage and AST%, very few ever become meaningful passers/playmakers. DeMarcus Cousins, Julius Randle, and Andrew Wiggins are peak outcomes. The path to Whitmore ever developing into a positive playmaker is contingent on wherever he lands. Those three players mentioned earlier all had high usage roles that essentially forced them to expand their game. If Whitmore is pigeonholed into the slasher/play-finisher archetypes as a tertiary creator, it’s unlikely he’ll grow as a passer. His scoring creation is already so robust at his age that teams may never feel the need to address his passing.
While Whitmore has found great success as an uber-athletic talent, he's yet to develop the grace and craft to manipulate defenders and create space away from the rim. At 6'7, 232 lbs, there's only so much flexibility and agility Whitmore can have at his size. This means he's a great downhill and vertical creator but isn't an omni-directional one. He's slow with his stepbacks, fails to create meaningful east-to-west separation with his crossovers, and really struggles at quickly changing pace. He can blow by defenders off-the-dribble, rise above for alley-oops, and finish through contact for and-ones. But all of those skills derive from raw physical ability. The next step for Whitmore is developing his pace and spatial acuity as a ball-handler. His acceleration to deceleration needs work, as well as his deceleration to acceleration. It's all quite raw at the moment.
As a shooter, Whitmore performed beyond expectations at Villanova. He was considered a poor/non-shooter in high school, and while he only shot 33.9% from 3pt range on 102 attempts, there were positive indicators that suggested his perimeter shooting can become a lot better. When breaking his 3pt numbers down by shot type, it's clear what Whitmore's strengths and weaknesses are as a shooter. Whitmore shot an outstanding 40% from 3pt off-the-catch, converting 37% of guarded 3pt shots and 46% of unguarded 3pt shots. These catch-and-shoot threes are important, as scaling into a respectable shooter will expand Whitmore's opportunities to get to the rim. As much as Whitmore was effective off-the-catch, he was abysmal off-the-dribble. He shot 3-for-13 on 2pt jumpers (midrange shots) and 29.7% from 3pt off-the-dribble. There aren't any discernible differences in his shot mechanics off-the-dribble vs. off-the-catch, meaning it's an issue of depth perception (shooting touch) while in motion rather than the form. The bulk of Whitmore's jumpers off-the-dribble come in some form of a stepback or sidestep. With a player of his force, decelerating, gathering, stepping backward, and rising for a shot is a bit more difficult than perceived. As Whitmore discovers his rhythm with reps, the shooting should stabilize.
Off-ball, Whitmore was fantastic for Villanova. A methodical cutter and an excellent mover, Whitmore almost instinctively understands where and when to move away from the ball, creating easy buckets for himself and easy assists for his teammates. Villanova ranked last among their conference in assists, below Georgetown, who finished 7-25. The quality of looks Whitmore creates with his off-ball movement was incredibly valuable for such a stagnant offense that was Villanova's. This is easily one of his most translatable skills to the next level. It's an aspect that's underrated in today's game. The Denver Nuggets maximized cutters, making it one of the most efficient and effective parts of their offense. The Golden State Warriors are another team that utilizes cutters. Both of those teams ranked in the top three in eFG% and assists.
The biggest hole in Whitmore's offense is passing/playmaking. The concern around Whitmore's passing isn't about how he passes but rather him passing at all. Whitmore finished the season with a 0.48 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is easily one of the worst among the class. Despite playing on secondary/tertiary usage, Whitmore only averaged 0.7 assists per game. His athleticism creates such an advantage downhill, but he fails to make basic passing reads after drawing in help. Too many times, Whitmore attempts to leverage his strength to make a play with multiple defenders on him instead of making a simple pocket pass or kick out. Whitmore isn't a selfish player, but how he interprets his role on-ball is certainly one-dimensional. Whitmore had 132 possessions in the pick-and-roll, including passes, but only notched five assists in those possessions. Four of those assists came from behind the three-point line. Whitmore was unsuccessful at Villanova in utilizing his greatest strength, rim pressure, to create looks for others. Overall, he was a weak live-dribble passer in the half-court. There wasn't a single pocket pass in those 132 possessions. Improving his passing vision and execution will take time and experimentation. Whitmore has to broaden his field of vision outside of what's in front of him.
Defensively, there's a ton of upside with Whitmore. His athletic traits, combined with his intuitiveness, compose a balanced yet opportunistic defender. The first thing that stands out with Whitmore as a defender is his effort. Like nearly every freshman prospect, Whitmore was a weak screen navigator, in both the pick-and-roll (pnr) and off-screens. He repeatedly got stuck on the pick, unable to maneuver his frame over the top of the screen. However, Whitmore almost always took the extra step to recover and contest jumpers and shots at the rim. Despite having a neutral wingspan (6'7" height, 6'8" wingspan), Whitmore's speed and leaping talent allowed him to contest shots all over the court. He only recorded nine blocks for the season, but each one was unique in style. One was off a post-up, one was a recovering closeout to the top of the key, he had a couple of recovery from-behind blocks at the rim, and another was a weak-side block. The diversity points to a level of engagement, effort, and versatility from Whitmore that his teammates and other prospects didn't have.
In addition to the blocks, Whitmore averaged 1.4 steals per game, notching a 3% steal rate. Cason Wallace and Anthony Black, two notably elite defenders in the class, were the only other freshman prospects with at least a 3% steal rate. Whitmore was a true disruptor on entry passes, passing lanes, and in transition. He doesn't have the wingspan, but his athleticism allows him to be aggressive after the ball.
On-ball, Whitmore exhibited exceptional lateral movement for his size, sticking with smaller, shifty guards. He tracks the ball very well around the perimeter in isolation, and does a solid job staying grounded on hesitations and other dribble moves. Whitmore did a fantastic job defending post-ups, utilizing his frame to wall up against bigger wings. Whitmore is a bit jumpy on contests, falling for shot fakes and step-throughs in the paint quite often. However, Whitmore has a phenomenal second jump that allows him to stay in possessions that would otherwise be lost.
All in all, Whitmore is an exciting prospect who possesses incredible athletic talents that put him head and shoulders above his peers. Strong, athletic, physical wings like Whitmore rarely fail in the league, as their only downfall is availability (health concerns). It’s critical that Whitmore takes vigilant care of his body, particularly his weight, as he grows into the league. If he does, Whitmore easily projects as one of the best play finishers in the league. His downhill creation, in tandem with his catch-and-shoot ability, will make him remarkably tough to guard.