Prospect Complexity: Cason Wallace
As one of the few true two-way talents in this class, Cason Wallace has carved a unique path among his peers in the 2023 draft class. Wallace has hovered at the top of boards for simply playing great basketball, an accomplishment that's not measured by efficiency, athleticism, or preposterous shot-making. Cerebral and defensive-minded guards are far and few among classes, but they've proven to be valuable for any team at any stage. Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Jrue Holiday, Jalen Suggs, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are all general examples of this. Whether it's as the starting point guard of a contending team or a sixth man on a retooling franchise, each of these players adds value.
Entering Kentucky, Cason Wallace was a top prospect, ranking top 5 among point guards in the nation. Wallace was revered for his defense, making his mark as a disruptor and lockdown defender. He was a rather rigid player who struggled from the perimeter, but his on-ball creation and playmaking talent compensated for those weaknesses.
The big themes with Wallace are instincts and purpose. Beyond his true shooting, Wallace plays an efficient game, both offensively and defensively. He's decisive and perceptive with his dribbling, shooting, and passing in a fashion that other guards in this draft class haven't reached. As the primary ball-handler, Wallace was strictly about business. An unselfish player who looked to facilitate opportunities for his teammates before himself but was calculated enough to know when to get his own. Wallace's playmaking wasn't flashy, and very few possessions did he make advanced reads out of sets like the pick-and-roll (PNR). Sure, his ceiling may be limited as a shot creator, but he did demonstrate a fundamental understanding of when and how to pass. His passes were consistently made with precision and speed, two things that make it easy for teammates to make a play and hard for defenses to recover from. Wallace was a fantastic passer in transition, locating teammates with incredible accuracy with full-court skip passes in stride. Tschiewbe wasn't much of a hard roller, so it's difficult to determine just how versatile Wallace is in the PNR, but his creativity on entry passes was impressive. An overlooked aspect of being a great passer, and something Wallace is terrific at, is ball manipulation. Whether it's shot fakes or redirecting the defense with the eyes, creating hesitancy among the defense provides the split seconds needed for a pass and an open shot that would otherwise be guarded. The small details Wallace has mastered create an easy environment for his teammates to excel.
As a scorer, Wallace showed big flashes, but there were inconsistencies. Averaging 11.7 ppg, Wallace established himself as a pull-up maestro, especially from midrange. Wallace was a quick riser off the dribble as well as off the catch, making him easily scalable with usage and touches. Wallace began the first half of his season as a secondary ball-handler, mainly working off-ball. He was eventually promoted to the primary ball-handler, where he operated a lot more on-ball and in the PNR. In both roles, Wallace was effective for Kentucky, with his scoring and playmaking providing much-needed ball movement and shooting. Nonetheless, it wasn't perfect. As strong as Wallace was as a spot-up shooter, he ran into quite a bit of trouble when closely defended or if the shots weren't falling. He had quite a few games with substantial minutes scoring under 10 points. Wallace lacked the adaptability as a scorer to utilize different avenues to score. As he transitioned into an on-ball role, his scoring increasingly anchored on midrange spot-ups. In most games, this was good enough, but against college's top defenses like Alabama, Tennessee, and UCLA, Wallace repeatedly came up empty. He occasionally used floaters, but the majority of those possessions were out of the PNR, not as a counter to a help defender coming over to protect the rim. On the other hand, Wallace lacked ball control around the rim, generating more turnovers than fouls on drives.
Although Wallace shot 34.3% from 3pt range, the path to him becoming a league-average perimeter shooter is there. He's one of the best midrange shooters in the class, with fantastic form and footwork. With more repetition, he can become a positive shooter before the end of his rookie contract. To emphasize this point, in the first half of his Kentucky tenure as a secondary ball-handler playing off-ball, Wallace was shooting 41.9% from 3pt range on 4.6 attempts. As his workload expanded to primary, the perimeter shooting nosedived, but the midrange maintained efficiency. In the last two months of the season, Wallace was shooting 18% from 3pt range but 44% on midrange shots. This stark contrast can be attributed to Wallace's inability to shoot off the dribble from long range. His 3pt shot was a question coming into the season anyway. It's clear what he needs to improve on. He looked out of place shooting threes in high pick-and-roll (PNR) situations and, in isolation, preferred to get to his spots on the interior rather than attempt a shot from deep. Transitioning from catch-and-shoot threes to self-created shots will take time, but considering his role in the NBA, he may not have to master those types of threes anyway.
The main selling point on Wallace is what he does on defense. Wallace functions as a disruptor in passing lanes and at the rim. Entry passes, lob passes, handoffs, pocket passes—Wallace was a no-fly zone when it came to ball movement. There are no outlier measurements or athleticism from Wallace that allow him to make these plays. Instead, he relies on his terrific instinct and feel for the game to anticipate where the ball will go. He averaged 2.0 steals per game, with an insane season-high of eight steals against Michigan State. It's not just the number of steals Wallace produces, but the process of producing them. Wallace has a special ability to manipulate and bait ball-handlers off-ball. A great example of this is Wallace intercepting routine skip passes by baiting the ball-handler, tagging the roller, and immediately recovering to the shooter with his arms outstretched the moment he senses the ball is being passed. Even in transition, Wallace makes the extra effort to disrupt what would be routine passes, leading to easy looks for his team. However, he has run into trouble against screens. His navigation skills are a work in progress, and his recovery skills against movement are frankly disappointing. He's quick to notice, but relatively slow to act. Furthermore, because Wallace creates easy offense as a disruptor, he can become a bit of a gambler and ball-watcher. This leads to defensive breakdowns, miscommunication, and easy points for the offense. At times, Wallace isn't sure whether to switch or not, and on a few occasions, shamelessly favors a switch so he doesn't have to run around screens chasing his matchup.
On-ball, those same instincts he possesses off-ball translate quite well. From a positioning perspective, Wallace does an amazing job keeping his shoulders square and arms outstretched to avoid fouling while staying on top of the ball-handler. This alone makes him one of the best point-of-attack (POA) defenders in the class. Wallace primarily guarded teams' backcourt, but Coach Calipari wasn't afraid to have Wallace matched up against bigger wings if necessary. He was fairly switchable, even against a few bigs. With his strength and low center of gravity, Wallace was comfortable guarding in the post and around the rim. He's 6'4", but certainly isn't a push-around. Wallace displays quick lateral movement that enables him to stay in front of ball-handlers on drives. His persistence on-ball forces players to adjust in real-time, and only versatile shot creators manage to truly cause trouble for him. Movement shooters as well, but those archetypes generally cause trouble for almost everyone. His pick-pocket instincts are nearly enhanced on-ball, as Wallace can go the extra mile to rip the ball out. Whether his matchup is attempting to make a pass or rise up for a shot, Wallace is all over it. It's not necessarily the frequency that makes it so impressive, but the process. Wallace executes with impeccable accuracy and timing. He can get into foul trouble, but that's not uncommon among great college defenders. Issues against screens persist for Wallace, as his navigation, positioning, and recovery are arguably worse on-ball against the PNR. Some of this is due to UK's scheme against the PNR, opting to nearly exclusively ice PNRs. This means Wallace's shoulders are almost perpendicular to the ball-handler's shoulders to force him away from the screen, but in turn, it allows open driving lanes. It didn't matter if the ball-handler was right-handed taking a screen from the left side; Wallace still attempted to ice the screen. Even when considering that it was likely in Calipari's system to ice all the screens, Wallace did a poor job recovering once beaten. Many times he didn't even bother to switch onto the roller if they hung behind.
All in all there’s serious upside for Wallace as a 6th man or even secondary ball-handler. The shot-making, court-awareness, and composure Wallace brings to the team can provide value to any team. His frame and level of athleticism brings confidence that his production on both ends will translate to the next level. Without a doubt a lottery prospect, and likely a top 10 pick when things are all said and done.