Prospect Complexity: Coleman Hawkins
Senior Coleman Hawkins is a 6’10, 225-lb wing with promising playmaking and defensive talent. After withdrawing his name from the 2023 NBA Draft, Hawkins has given himself another chance to improve his draft stock. There are plethora of areas he must improve in, but the talent is undeniably there.
Athleticism:
Athletically, there are a plethora of concerns around his capabilities, both in talent and forward development. Starting with his strength, Hawkins should be significantly stronger functionally than he really is. Defensively, he fails to hold his own in the paint against post-ups and short drives. Seldom does he box out, although Hawkins does well in providing second chance points for Illinois. Offensively, Hawkins struggles to utilize his 225-lbs frame to create advantages on-ball, specifically as he’s getting downhill. He’s not the player to embrace frequent contact, opting for fadeaway/pull-up mid-range shots instead of driving to the rim. The unwillingness to get his hands dirty in the paint to at the very least draw fouls is more concerning regarding his actual strength. Hawkins' style of play doesn’t align with that of a power player.
The strength concerns grow for Hawkins, as there’s no other athletic talent that he could tap into at this point. Hawkins possesses average collegiate speed for a wing, average burst, average agility, and average flexibility. As a 21-year-old wing without meaningful athletic traits, the window of getting drafted into the NBA is small.
Hawkins is an off-ball creator in the function of both scorer and playmaker, constantly looking to exploit small cracks in the defense created by his backcourt. The best off-ball players are typically some of the most athletic, as they’re able to leverage their burst and speed to create spatial advantages off the catch. Hawkins doesn’t possess the components of athleticism. He has sufficient speed in the open floor, subpar downhill momentum in the halfcourt, and a mediocre first step on both sides of the floor.
Another concern is Hawkins’ vertical talent, or lack thereof. While there isn’t an expectation of him being a primary lob threat or monster rebounder, there is an expectation that a 6’10 Power-Forward is able to rise through contact and finish around the rim, especially as a roll man and cutter.
Balance, agility, and flexibility are also concerns with Hawkins, although his mobility is substantively effective on-ball. In combination with mediocre speed and burst, Hawkins has faced challenges maintaining balance while handling the ball, often cornering himself into awkward, heavily contested shots, especially on possessions he’s looking to get downhill. Hawkins lacks rhythm and a strong base, resulting in overdribbled, slow, roundabout drives. Off-ball and defensively, Hawkins demonstrated much better balance and mobility, which alludes to his balance concerns on-ball being rooted in upper limb coordination. The lack of stability on-ball also points to subpar flexibility and range of motion in the ankle, which also impacts Hawkins’ ability to form and maintain a positive shin angle as he’s running.
As a whole, athleticism has not been a strength for Hawkins. While it’s very unlikely that he could improve on all of these issues in one off-season, enhancing his strength, stability, and range of motion functionally would pay major dividends for him this upcoming season.
Offense:
Coleman Hawkins averaged 9.9/6.3/3.0 and 2.2 stocks on 52.2% TS. While an inefficient scorer, Hawkins' role on offense stretched beyond simply scoring. He led Illinois in assists and minutes played, acting as the secondary facilitator and tertiary ball-handler for the team. Hawkins demonstrated a rather extensive passing tree for his position, with the capability of making advanced half-court reads, particularly his skip passes from the wing, which provided open looks from three for Illinois' best shooter. The intriguing aspect of Hawkins' playmaking profile is how rarely he utilized the PnR (Pick and Roll) to initiate actions. Hawkins was very comfortable making reads off-ball as a high-end connector. Going into what is expected to be the final season, Hawkins will likely continue to scale his role with more on-ball reps to take advantage of his playmaking skill. However, Hawkins' passing talent doesn't come without its fair share of turnovers. At times, Hawkins can be a bit careless with the timing and tempo of his passes, mainly due to timing issues. There are possessions where Hawkins sees a passing opportunity and calls for the ball, not understanding that the window is likely closed by the time he gets it. Instead of looking for another play, Hawkins selects to force the pass, which leads to turnovers. Hawkins had seven games with 5 turnovers or more. Alternatively, he had six games with 5 assists or more. The talent is certainly there, but Hawkins must display improved decision-making and discipline as a passer to be trusted at the next level.
As a scorer, Hawkins has an interesting shot profile. Starting with the very basics, he's attempting more jumpers than shots at the rim (layups and dunks). Per game, Hawkins attempted 4.7 jumpers and 2.5 shots at the rim. Including hook shots, Hawkins would be attempting 3.4 shots at the rim. Out of the 4.7 jumpers attempted, 4.0 were threes. There are other ≥6'10 players in the NCAA with a shot diet parallel to Hawkins, but almost none with his volume and inefficiency. He shot 29.4% on unguarded off-the-catch threes on 2.1 attempts per game. His production ranked 216th out of 223 qualified players attempting at least 2.0 off-the-catch attempts per game. Not good. Off-the-dribble, Hawkins shot 33.3% from three on 0.8 attempts per game. It's clear Hawkins isn't a strong three-point shooter, and at this point in his career, the odds of him turning into an average (36% 3pt) perimeter shooter are unlikely. As a shooter from both midrange and three, Hawkins has difficulties executing with touch and discipline. His shot quality is akin to a shooting guard, with a lot of dribble crossover pull-ups and stepbacks. This is despite having a shaky handle and poor shooting splits. Hawkins can quickly get into a rhythm of over-dribbling when he wants to shoot the ball, abandoning his passing talent and simple ball movement for contested jumpers that statistically have rarely gone in for him. It's inefficient to his game and to the Illinois offense.
The overtendency of shooting these contested jumpers has hindered his development around the rim. His efficiency at the rim is phenomenal, converting 74.4% of his layups in the halfcourt. The volume, however, is what's concerning. With his shot diet and frame, Hawkins should have a lot more than 43 total attempts at the rim. For context, 6'10 former Alabama freshman now Brooklyn Net Noah Clowney had the same three-point rate as Hawkins, attempted a field-goal and a half less per game than Hawkins, played only three more games than Hawkins, yet had 128 more total attempts at the rim. Granted, Clowney only attempted three total jumpers off the dribble, but there's a healthy in-between the two. 43 attempts are unjustifiable, especially as it's the sole shot type Hawkins was statistically efficient in.
For Hawkins to improve his efficiency, the scoring needs to become more streamlined. The biggest hindrance to Hawkins currently is his athleticism and handle. His handle is very shaky, especially on downhill possessions dribbling east-west. Hawkins has a 27% turnover rate on drives, which is very high relative to his role as an off-ball wing. An overwhelming majority of these turnovers are a byproduct of his handle. It affects his stability, speed, and passing vision. At 21 years old, prospects are no longer making substantial turnarounds in their athleticism. Refining his handle will be the big expectation this season.
Finally, the biggest factor in Hawkins making strides this upcoming season is his shot selection, notably from around the perimeter. As mentioned earlier, Hawkins is not a strong three-point shooter, but his shot profile is that of a scoring guard. Lots of step backs and off-the-dribble fades. It's over dribbling from a player that shouldn't be shooting that type of three in the first place. Becoming more streamlined in his relocation shots will have a huge effect on not only his efficiency but the team's offense as a whole.
The path is there for Hawkins to become an efficient, impactful scorer. The expectation this upcoming season is that the basic techniques like dribbling have reached a stage of on-ball functionality. This adds fluidity and much-needed ball-security to his game. It also extends his capability as a playmaker, as he delves into interior live-dribble passes. With a more compact handle, the shot selection should become increasingly precise as well. As a senior with extensive basketball experience, Hawkins knows where his strengths and weaknesses lie. It's up to him to have the discipline of choosing the right shot.
Defense:
Where Hawkins really flashed throughout the season is on the defensive end. As a Power Forward, Hawkins has a multitude of responsibilities on the defensive end, all of which are integral to the team's defensive scheme. Illinois as a whole ranked 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency among D1 schools and 5th in their conference. Illinois' success this past season was rooted in their defense, and Hawkins was a huge part of that.
Hawkins does a phenomenal job utilizing his length, both in wingspan and stride, to make up for speed and burst. He covers a ton of space with his stride movements, applying ball pressure against drives with his physical presence. There are plenty of other 6’10 forwards with 7’0 wingspans, but very few maximize their physical traits like Hawkins has.
Against spot-up shooters, Hawkins does a solid job with closeouts, generating solid contests with his lengthy arms. There are many possessions where Hawkins is technically out of position, but his daunting size and wingspan have the capability of disrupting shots regardless.
The PnR (Pick and Roll) is where Hawkins has shown the most surprising flashes defensively. Typically, big, athletically-challenged wings are the players who struggle the most to defend the PnR, whether they’re guarding as the screen-defender or ball-defender. However, Hawkins has refined his screen navigation to be more effective, no matter what the matchup is. It’s impressive how much ground he covers when coming off screens. First, Hawkins extends his arms, maintaining contact between him and his matchup. Without fouling, Hawkins manages to maintain this contact and takes a long step to get into the hip of his matchup after getting around the screen. From there, Hawkins typically plays to the hip, and that alone has been disruptive enough to create stops. Hawkins doesn’t have the hip and ankle mobility to become a primary defender against shot creators, but he does a fine job against secondary creators and play-finishers. Averaging 2.3 stocks (steals + blocks) per game, Hawkins has a talent for finding the ball at the right time. Hawkins has a ton of recovery blocks despite a weak vertical, and an incredible number of open-floor (transition) steals. When he makes the extra effort, things happen.
Where Hawkins needs to show improvement is off-ball, in the post, and around the rim as a low man. Off-ball, Hawkins simply has a discipline issue. He’s vulnerable to cuts and other aggressive off-ball scoring techniques. There were so many possessions where Hawkins allowed his man to get open lanes to the paint while playing off-ball. As a help defender on the wing, Hawkins sags way too far off his matchups. The soft doubling has largely been ineffective for Illinois, and it only makes passing easier for opponents. In the post, Hawkins lacks the lower body strength to maintain his balance and positioning when backed down. He doesn’t offer any real resistance against post moves. Around the rim, Hawkins hasn’t figured out how to vertically contest without fouling, so he defers to stationary contests. This rarely works.
In terms of draft projection, Hawkins can only go but so high as a senior. Teams, specifically playoff/contending teams, love drafting defensively tilted connective upperclassman with their 1st round picks. Hawkins’ archetype is attractive to teams who aren’t looking to develop 19 year-olds, but instead look for player to plug and play into specialized roles that can improve their team come playoff time. Christian Braun is an example of this. If Hawkins can demonstrate efficiency in his role, a first round draft selection is in his future.