Prospect Complexity: Emoni Bates
Emoni Bates has lived in the center of debate for over half a decade now. He garnered the nickname of “Kevin Durant Jr.” at just 11 years-old and was projected to be the top prospect in his class, years before he ever reached high school. With lofty expectations put upon Bates, every move has been met with scrutiny. A five-star in high school, Bates lived up to the hype as one the best shot makers in his class. Ranked No. 2 in the 2022 class, Emoni made one his first controversial decisions: Reclassifying to the class of 2021. In reclassifying, Bates also rescinded his commitment to Michigan State. It never became clear why he decommited, but that same month, Bates announced he’d join future lottery-pick Jalen Duren and head coach Penny Hardaway at University of Memphis.
Bates did not have a promising freshman campaign at Memphis. Bates started the season with an impressive 3 game stretch, averaging 16 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 3.0 turnovers on 74.29% TS (27.7mpg). This was the prospect everyone was waiting for. Big shot maker, wildly efficient. The next 13 games however, Bates nosedived, averaging 9.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 2.5 turnovers on 43.99% TS (24.9mpg). Bates regular season would end after those 16 games, suffering a back injury in late January. In the time without Bates, Memphis transformed into one of the best teams in the nation, going on a 10-2 run to end the regular season, ranking top-10 in both offense and defense. In his stretch, Bates showcased some intriguing flashes, but as the season progressed, it became clear he was not prepared for the rigors of playing in a major conference at 17-years old. His freshman season was quickly marred in drama, with folks questioning if he was ever truly injured at all. The good news for Bates was that he had time. At 17-years old, Bates wouldn’t be age eligible for the draft until 2023. He’d have another opportunity to prove why he was the top prospect in the nation.
Bates entered the transfer portal in the off season, in seek of another program to spread his wings. After receiving offers from Michigan, Arkansas, Seton Hall, DePaul, Louisville and Eastern Michigan, Bates chose the mid-major, Eastern Michigan. In going to Eastern Michigan, Bates would be returning to his hometown: “People probably look at me crazy because I’m considering Eastern, but if I went there, I would be like the neighborhood hero. I used to play at Eastern during my high school games when I was at Lincoln, and we used to pack it out every time. That would be crazy for me to be able to bring love to the city.”
Fast forward to today, and Bates has blossomed as a scorer, averaging 21.0/5.5/1.3 on 56% TS in 22 games played. He’s set NCAA history this season, scoring 27 straight points for Eastern, a feat never achieved by any other player, in any other school. He leads the MAC in total points and ranks 2nd in points per game. The top prospect folks were hoping to see at Memphis is thriving at Eastern Michigan.
With the attention back on Bates, the discussions about his future is back in full swing. Many look at his highlights and say he’s a lock for the lottery (top 15), and others say he’s a 2nd rounder at best. There are many nuances to evaluating his game, and the first is the team and the conference he plays in. Although Bates has had a much-improved season, Eastern Michigan has not. Eastern is 3-7 in the conference as of February 5th, ranking 3rd worst in the Mid-American. Overall, the school is 6-17, tying for 2nd worst in the conference. Last season Eastern ended their season 5-15 in the conference, and 10-21 overall. With 8 games left in the regular season, Eastern will have to win at least 4 out of the 8 games to match last season. Losing is fine, but a 0.352 record is a cause for concern. Compared to last year, Eastern’s offense has made improvements, but the defense has fallen off a cliff, ranking 320th out of 358 D1 schools in defensive rating.
It’s unfair to expect a 19-year-old to make a bad team better, but there are a few takeaways from this. The first is shot selection. Emoni Bates has a green light unlike any other prospect in his class. GG Jackson and Brice Sensabaugh are two of the 2023 draft class’s biggest iso-heavy prospects, but even they don’t come close to the shots Bates is willing to take. There are countless possessions Bates will take the ball up the floor and jack up a shot with over 20 seconds left on the clock. Doesn’t matter if it’s a close game possession, or a double-digit deficit, Bates plays at the beat of his own drum. It gets to the point where Bates is blatantly throwing away possessions for the sake of trying 35-ft heaves. The only player with a shot diet that comes close to Bates’ is Damian Lillard and Bones Hyland. It’s not a hot take saying Emoni Bates is nowhere near the player Dame was in college, even if you compare their sophomore seasons. Hyland on the other hand, while not the scorer Bates is, it’s his playmaking that’s kept him on the court for the Nuggets. To establish himself on an NBA roster, Emoni will have to develop his game outside of scoring. Scoring is valuable, but there’s days shots won’t go in. Teams will look to see what he can contribute when that happens.
Simply put, Bates is a self-centered player. He’s an amazing shot maker, and his scoring ability is better than most in his class. A legit 3-level scorer, demonstrating advanced shot making around the perimeter, in the midrange, and under the basket. Bates loves going for stepbacks and sidesteps, and his quick release makes his shot hard to guard. There’s no area of the floor he hasn’t gotten a bucket at. With that aside, Bates has yet to show a consistent desire or willingness to make plays for his teammates. He has the highest usage rate among the team but ranks 6th in assist rate. He’s one of four players in the nation among D1 schools playing at least 25 mpg, on >30% usg (high usage), with an AST rate below 10%. To contextualize these numbers, Michael Beasley, TJ Warren, DeMarcus Cousins, Cam Thomas, and Jabari Parker are the only notable names drafted that qualify for this filter.
Looking on the other end, Bates has not shown any significant improvement as a defender. It doesn’t show up in the box score (0.8 spg & 0.4 bpg), but Bates has great instincts with his hands, frequently disrupting drives and passing lanes. The problem comes on help-defense, around screens, in the post, and on-ball. Starting with his on-ball defense, Bates has a bad habit of giving up the open lane off the first step. Instead of moving laterally to beat his defender to a spot, Bates immediately looks to run alongside his man. It looks as though Bates is trying to recover before his man ever passes him. In the pick-and-roll, Bates again struggles to stay in front. At 6’10”, 190-lbs, Bates has a skinny frame, which is good for slipping through defenders on offense, but in turn gets punished on defense. He does not fight through screens well, and although he has quick feet, can tend to be a bit jumpy on shot fakes and jab steps. In the post, his frame is again exploited, and finds himself getting backed down quite easily. As a help defender, Bates uses his hands more than his body, opting for steals instead of blocking off the lane. Bates isn’t as committed nor equipped defensively as he is on offense. Good instincts, but very raw. It’s possible he can make the improvements in the league, but teams tend to be impatient w/ young wings that are defensive liabilities.
There is no denying Bates’ ability as a scorer, but he’s still very raw in all other aspects. It would be in his best interests to stay another year in college to work on his weaknesses before getting thrown into the fire that is the NBA.