Prospect Complexity: Judah Mintz

After a mixed bag of a season, Syracuse freshmen Judah Mintz has declared for the 2023 NBA draft. Although his draft stock has declined from a first-round consensus to a mid-late second-round pick, that doesn’t mean the projections made before the season began were misguided.

Mintz isn’t the prototypical scoring guard. He prefers buckets off midrange jumpers and floaters instead of his three-ball. Mintz has shown strong flashes as a self-creator in the midrange, which not only improves his scoring versatility, but his playmaking chops as a point guard. Judah Mintz is the only guard prospect that has legit scoring gravity and leverages it to create easy opportunities for his teammates. In a perfect world, Mintz would be creating more of his shots from the perimeter to open spacing, but his ability to weave through defenders in the interior draws more than enough attention from defenses. The scoring hasn’t been efficient, and at times Mintz will put up one too many leaners at incredibly tough angles. Mintz’s shot diet is contested/tough looks, but this comes from his lack of confidence as a perimeter scorer and pull-up shooter. Mintz only averaged 2.1 three-point attempts per game, converting a mere 30.3%. With his interior scoring, Mintz tends to over-dribble, even after creating separation, allowing defenders to recover and contest his shot.

One of Mintz’s strongest flashes as a scorer is his knack for getting to the line. Mintz averaged nearly 6 free-throw attempts, making him the only freshmen this season to average at least 15 points and 5 free-throw attempts per game. Foul-craft is important for Mintz at his size. At 6’3”, 172-lbs, Mintz will have to keep defenders honest if he looks to continue to shoot middies/floaters against their length.

There’s not much film of Mintz scoring off-ball, and the numbers are eye-popping. 45% of Judah Mintz’s field-goals are scored from the midrange/in the paint (non-restricted area). Only 13% of said field-goals are assisted. Mintz is doing a lot on his own as a freshman, leading to the inconsistency and inefficiency he’s had this season. Whether he acts as a cutter or spot-up shooter, Mintz must develop skills that makes him valuable without the ball in his hands. In almost every game he’s played, Mintz exclusively hangs around the top of the key. He’s only attempted a single corner three this season, while other point/combo-guards in this class have attempted at least twenty. He doesn’t relocate to make passes easier for teammates, nor does he relocate to make shots easier on himself. He’s a non-factor off-ball.

As a playmaker, Mintz has shown a ton of promise, primarily in his reads and gravity as the ball-handler. Mintz loves to punish bigs that are out of position, whether it’s off a lob pass or hitting his teammate on a backdoor cut. Because Mintz scores from inside, he’s able to draw help from defenders around the perimeter, which creates open looks for 3pt shooters. Again, Mintz is one of the few guards in this class that has real scoring gravity, and one of the only to leverage it to create easy opportunities for his teammates. He’s not a connector, nor is he orchestrating the offense to execute on a specific play, but the ingenuity Mintz possesses to create something out of nothing should not go unnoticed.

Part of the reason why Mintz has become so comfortable operating from inside at 6’3” is due to his ball-handling. It’s far from efficient/functional, but Mintz is a good dribbler. He keeps the ball low, generates solid separation, and rarely does he get his pockets picked.

The biggest weakness in Judah Mintz’s game is his three-point shot. On the season, Mintz shot 30.3% 3pt on 2.1 attempts per game. Not many attempts, below average shooting percentage. It isn’t great at face value, but looking at his last 20 games played, Mintz shot 37.8% 3pt on 2.3 attempts. Still quite a small volume of attempts relative to other guards, but his shooting showed massive improvements as he settled down. It’s encouraging to see his shooting improve at a time where most prospects’ shooting splits tend to regress.

Defensively it isn’t clear what Mintz is exactly. Syracuse is notorious for running a ton of zone, some games playing entirely in the 2-3. What is known is Mintz has great hands as a POA defender, averaging 1.8 steals per game. With a reported 7’0” wingspan, Mintz can go after balls without fouling, and in the few possessions he’s played man-to-man, Mintz has done a great job applying pressure on ball-handlers without fouling, something that has also led to steals. He has impressive instincts, frequently nabbing passes from the top of the key. The weaknesses in his defense aren’t clear due to the lack of diversity in coverages that are played at Syracuse, but the lack of reps will be an issue at the next level.

Judah Mintz has shown a lot of promise as a shot creator and primary ball-handler but must develop ulterior skillsets offensively to become a true, contributing guard.