Prospect Complexity: Keyonte George

The 2023 draft class is loaded with talent from top to bottom. At the guard position, this draft class has some very promising prospects. Among the top, there's Scoot Henderson and the Thompson Twins; game-changing prospects with one-of-a-kind athleticism. Afterward, there are around five guards in the 10-20 range, each with their unique strengths and weaknesses. Between all of them, Keyonte George looks to be the most promising shot-maker. While his upside is limited, his offensive production can prove invaluable to contending teams looking for a guard that gives them an edge over other competing rosters.

Coming out of high school, Keyonte George was ranked the #3 SG in the 2023 class, revered for his remarkable shot-making at all three levels, mainly from long range. From IMG, George committed to the University of Baylor, where he'd have an opportunity to showcase his abilities alongside two other skilled but experienced guards, LJ Cryer, and Adam Flagler.

With all three guards in the starting lineup, Baylor had created one of the most potent offenses in the country, ranking second in adjusted offensive efficiency among all D-1 schools. While the offense boomed, trouble grew defensively. Baylor had a conference-worst 101.6 adjusted defensive efficiency. Against Top-25 programs like Kansas and Kansas State, Baylor failed to generate stops and instead relied on their shot-making to get them through games. On top of having a guard-heavy lineup, Baylor's frontcourt provided zero rim protection. Opponents shot 63.5% eFG (1.27 PPS) at the rim against Baylor, ranking in the 2nd percentile. That's dreadful.

By and large, George was an inconsistent contributor to Baylor’s defense. George exhibited impressive lateral movement that allowed him to defend quite well against spot-up and off-the-dribble shooters. Even on "bad" defensive possessions, George makes the extra effort to close out on jumpers. He defended well against shifty smaller guards and did a solid job against bigger, stronger wings. At 6'4", 215 lbs, George isn't a muscle-bound guard, but he does possess a dense frame. Powering through George was largely ineffective, and push-offs/shoulder bumps were just as futile.

George wasn't perfect defensively. He didn't match up well against slashers/quick, athletic guards. Whether he was defending guards in the pick-and-roll or matched up against wings, George never seemed prepared for players to attack him downhill. He had a tendency to open up his hips too early, conceding open driving lanes to the ball handler. George was quite susceptible to shot fakes, jumping in the air, or going flat-footed instead of staying alert and grounded. Once he was beaten, there was little to no resistance from him. This led to another issue: foul anxiety. There were possessions where George ultimately gave up on the defensive end out of fear he might foul, even if he wasn't in foul trouble. Ironically enough, George was a big ball-watcher and focused much of his attention on getting after the ball instead of defending. At times, this worked out for George, as he racked up a total of 37 steals (1.1 steals per game). However, more often than not, going after a strip resulted in defensive breakdowns and easy buckets for the opponents.

Off-ball, George has similar issues, frequently helping off his matchups to gamble after the ball. When he wasn't gambling on steals, George still had difficulties off-ball. He was a big ball-watcher, relinquishing pathways for cutters and clearouts. As a team, Baylor was terrible against cuts, allowing 1.214 PPP (64.5% eFG), which is below average. So George isn't entirely at fault for his lack of discipline off-ball, as Baylor's scheme was untenable against cuts.

The level of aggressiveness and assertiveness George played with waxed and waned. His effectiveness as a defender at the next level is contingent upon the discipline he maintains. Will he stay committed and focused on fulfilling the responsibilities given to him? The tools are there.

Offensively, George has proved to be one of, if not the best shot-making guard in the class. George is a confident, unafraid long-range shooter. Before suffering an ankle injury in late February, George was shooting 35.8% from 3pt range on 7 attempts over 28 games. In his final 5 games, George had an abysmal 35.7% TS, shooting 18.5% from 3pt range on 5.4 attempts. The ankle injury clearly affected his scoring, which affected his overall shooting splits. Looking past the overall numbers, his multiple-game performances with Baylor unequivocally set him apart from other combo guards in this class. Anthony Black and Colby Jones, for example, lack George's off-the-dribble talent from range. On the other hand, while Jalen Hood-Schifino and Cason Wallace have midrange talent, both lack George's shot versatility from deep range. In terms of shooting talent, George stands at the top. Nonetheless, there's more to being a great shooter than just talent. George did a fantastic job exploiting tight windows, constantly keeping the defense on their toes. He shot an exceptional 37.7% from 3pt range out of the PnR, and an even better 46.2% from 3pt range off screens. He's one of the few guard prospects who can stop and rise both off the catch and dribble.

On the interior, George struggled to find his rhythm. He was a poor scorer from midrange, shooting a mere 31.7% from the field. Keyonte rarely took true midrange shots, as most of his field-goal attempts from midrange were contested leaners that utilized his touch rather than his actual jump shot. Despite solid handles, George never managed to create meaningful space for good looks in the midrange, with a good number of shots getting blocked. More than anything, a majority of his midrange looks were out of rhythm and unneeded. Opportunities to pass the ball or attack the rim were superseded by pull-up contested midrange shots. His 3pt shot-making is an indicator that he has a chance of becoming a solid midrange shooter, but the shot selection is more of a concern than the actual shot.

With excellent shot-making comes the habit of taking bad shots. Jordan Poole and Emoni Bates are good examples of this. Because of George's confidence in his shot, at times he doesn't look beyond shooting contested jumpers. George wasn't one to aggressively attack closeouts, nor was he one to cut off-ball. Both plays produced positive outcomes for George, but George generally shied away from leveraging his shot gravity to attack the paint.

A possible explanation for his lack of rim pressure is his athleticism. George isn't an unathletic guard, but he does lack a quick first step and speed getting downhill. Seldom did George beat defenders off the dribble with foot speed alone. The timing and reads of his drives need improvement as well. Even with three-guard lineups and Baylor's strong perimeter shooting, George had difficulty finding adequate spacing to reach the basket. Going back to IMG, George has never had a quick first step, and he doesn't generate enough speed with his second and third steps to blow by defenders. To compensate for his speed, George leaned on his handle to get around defenders. Crossovers and an array of hesi moves were frequently used by George to maneuver around defenders and attack the paint. As he develops a better feel in the interior, his handle will become a valuable weapon against a multitude of defenders and coverages.

As a passer, George proved to be a strong connector but lacked the processing as a scorer to initiate an offense. He can thread passes through tight windows with bullet passes and loves seeking out cutters with head fakes and one-armed throws. Even so, his processing and feel as a scorer in the interior are so deficient that it takes away from his passing talent and what he could become as a playmaker. Out the PnR, George makes all the basic reads, but more importantly he executes his passes to the roller or strongside shooter with accuracy, making their jobs easier. In transition he’s not suited to lead fast breaks, but he can push the pace with pinpoint outlet and skip passes from behind.

Overall, with the strengths George currently possesses he can easily become a valuable rotation piece. With development, George has a path to becoming a 6MOY. Neither the passing, defense, nor scoring is strong enough to be a starting guard in the NBA, but the value he could have as a rotation piece is sky-high.