Prospect Complexity: Rob Dillingham

PROFILE 

Rob Dillingham epitomizes the essence of “scoring guard.” An eccentric offensive weapon that can create and score from any area of the floor. At 6’1, 165-lbs, however, Dillingham cannot shake off the predispositions of the small guard.  

Size is paramount when evaluating Dillingham’s physical/athletic profile. Despite other premier athletic qualities, size takes a big piece of the pie. There will always be a natural limitation on what Dillingham can physically do on the court at 6’1.

To his advantage, Dillingham’s size allows for maneuverability through narrow spacing, notably downhill. This complements his footspeed and shiftiness, as he’s able to take on aggressive driving angles, using his quick-twitch mobility to create separation and score. 

In all aspects, Dillingham plays at a rapid pace. Footspeed, shot release, passing velocity, ball-handling, processing, Dillingham is all about playing at a quick pace. For guards, and particularly undersized guards, speed is the greatest asset available. Lower to the ground, Dillingham can worm through bigger defenders to the rim for clean looks.  

With a sharp first step, explosive verticality, and quick change of direction, Dillingham has successfully merged the three to amplify his advantage creation. These qualities suggest sufficient strength in his quad muscles and hip extensors (respective of height). Both are critical in producing explosivity vertically and at ground level. 

In-air, Dillingham has phenomenal body control, indicating sufficient core-strength and dexterity of the upper extremities. Dexterity is exhibited through his ball-handling, capable of executing many intricate dribbling sequences to create spacing from defenders. There's also his rim-finishing, Dillingham being one of the best in the class on touch shots. He possesses one of, if not the deepest, finishing bags, capable of executing layups from every angle, regardless of body position. 

What has truly separated Rob Dillingham from other prototypical athletic scoring guards is his cognitive agility. His processing and creativity offensively are atypical among guards with his scoring talent. Has an in-depth understanding of space, defensive tendencies, and court mapping. This degree of game processing grants him the privilege of scaling between scoring guard to point guard, both in a roster and play-style sense. It underlines Dillingham value on the floor outside of scoring, a quality many scoring guards lack. 

In a technical aspect, Dillingham operates in anything but a traditional sense. His body swings every which way as he dribbles, his feet sway as he raises to his jumper, and he doesn’t care much for how his body aligns with the basket upon his gather, so long as its chest aligns on release. It’s impressive how Dillingham maintained elite scoring efficiency despite his wild approach, but it also explains his prior seasons leading to Kentucky. OTE, Donda Academy, EYBL, FIBA, Dillingham’s off-the-cuff technique was typically the downfall of his game. Beyond his scoring ability, the absence of technical discipline also debilitated his defense. 

OFFENSE 

Dillingham averaged 15.2/3.1/3.9 on 55.9% eFG | 59.5% TS, through 32 games. He’s one of ten freshmen to average 15+ points per game this season, and the sole true freshman to average 15+ points on ≥55% eFG. Dillingham earned SEC 6MOY of the year for these achievements, coming off the bench for Kentucky in 31 of 32 games. He was Kentucky’s second-leading scorer, second-leading in assists, while fifth-leading in minutes.  

Dillingham’s role and responsibilities scaled within games but was utilized primarily as an initiator and premier ball-handler. On-ball, Dillingham frequently ran the PnR, converting an exceedingly efficient 1.000 PPP (points per possession), on 3.8 possessions per game. Dillingham was all about exploiting any space defenders deferred.  

Versus any form of drop, Dillingham favored using ball-screens going to his left, proceeding with a pull-up jumper. If it were a high ball-screen, Dillingham shot the three, on side PnRs, he would defer to middies or floaters. What made this so effective is his near-instant shot release. Any slower, and he’d have to deal with lengthy contests. By the time he reaches his release point, defenders are just getting their hands up. It’s a small window, but he’s exceeded threading the needle more times than not. An elite scorer versus drop coverage. 

To counter Dillingham’s pull-up jumpers, defenses began hard hedging against Kentucky ball screens, immediately taking away his space coming off the screen. This was highly effective, as it not only removed his jumper, but took him out of rhythm, leading to turnovers or rushed shots. The hedging screen-defender had the advantage of size and proximity, their physicality overwhelming for the 165-lb Dillingham. Kentucky had a few counters to this; one being transmuting a simple ball-screen into a double drag for open Dillingham threes. Nevertheless, hedging forced Dillingham to attempt difficult progressions, both as passer and scorer. As a potential NBA point guard, it’s important Dillingham can identify, discern, and counter the multitude of coverages thrown at him. There were a few possessions Dillingham rejected the screen upon identifying the defense hedging, opting to attack his POA, resulting in quality buckets. An example of a counter he will need to expand on to maintain his effectiveness as a PnR operator. 

In respect to other play types, Dillingham had minimal field-goal attempts out of isos, with only 35 possessions total. The possessions, however, give insight into his shot creation off the dribble, specifically how he crafts advantages with his handle. Dillingham’s bag is deep. He’s a creative, flashy dribbler, but operates out of functionality. The hesis, tweens, crossovers, behind-the-backs, all serve the purpose of creating much-needed spacing for him to score. At 6’1, he isn’t scoring over defenders, and at 165-lbs, he isn’t bullying anyone to establish his own space. Finesse and speed are his game. Akin to the best iso scorers in the league, Dillingham creates space by persistently attacking the outside top foot of his defender, prying open a driving lane. He has a myriad of techniques to set this up, but it always leads to attacking that outside top foot. Dillingham didn’t have much issue blowing by his initial defender but did run into problems against the low man in help. A common weakness among undersized guards. 

Dillingham has shown phenomenal touch in the paint, from his floaters 8-16ft out, to his touch layups at the rim. He has been incredibly efficient in the halfcourt, shooting 52.9% fg on floaters, and 58% fg on layups. Trae Young and De’Aaron Fox are the only few guard prospects that even come close to shooting 50% fg on floaters. Tyrese Maxey, Ja Morant, SGA, all shot ~40% fg on floaters (halfcourt) in their college days. It's not far-fetched to say Dillingham has some of the best touch among prospects historically, at least in the past decade. His touch off glass, the underhanded finishes, the baseline floaters, the makes off balance, it’s uncommon to see an undersized guard finish to the extent Dillingham has throughout an entire collegiate season. 

Conversely, Dillingham over-relied on this shot making ability, neglecting better reads. His transition offense highlights this problem better than any other facet of his offense. It’s as though Dillingham is given too much space to manage and self-implodes voluntarily. His rim finishing plummets in transition, from 58% fg in the halfcourt, to 45% fg, and his perimeter shooting nosedives, from 47.1% 3pt in the halfcourt, to 28% 3pt.  

Dillingham wants to get out in transition. If one of Kentucky’s playmakers grabs the defensive rebound, Dillingham is pushing full sprint to receive an outlet pass, and finish at the rim. If he nabs the defensive rebound, his pace may slow, but he is still looking for creases to attack and force pressure at the rim. The concept is great. Take advantage of an unset, unorganized defense, and get to the cup. Issues arise when Dillingham pushes ahead, even though there is no advantage present. Too many possessions 6’1 Dillingham is taking on multiple defenders at the rim, dashing downhill, when there’s no feasible avenue to score. It crippled his scoring, and more importantly, stunted potential Kentucky momentum. Court awareness, self-awareness, must improve.  

As an off-ball scorer, Dillingham’s production was nothing short of elite. 1.311 PPP (points per possession) on spot-up shooting, ranking 97th percentile across D-1 players. Between his ability to effectively attack closeouts (50% 2pt), and his automatic shot making ability as a catch-and-shooter (47.7% 3pt), Dillingham was just as a threat away from the ball as on it.  

Shot making was not the only aspect that made Dillingham effective off the catch. His readiness and preparation for scoring were just as significant. He understood where to position and reposition himself off-ball, consistently reorganizing himself throughout the court to align himself in passing vision of the ball-handler. This not only encouraged ball-movement but continually spaced the floor.  

Off-ball movement is an underrated skill set for guards. It’s a skill that can be difficult to introduce at the NBA level, a pace of play much faster and unrepenting than lower leagues. In the case of Dillingham, off-ball movement emphasizes his offensive scalability and malleability within roster/lineup construction. There’s no obligation to pari him with a specific class of ball-handler, as Dillingham meshes with both high/low-usage guards. 

PLAYMAKING:  

Playmaking was an intriguing facet of Dillingham’s offense. A willing passer, although a score-first guard, Dillingham was Kentucky’s primary ball-handler in his featured minutes. He was given the responsibility of taking the ball up the floor, running the PnR, resetting the offense after blown up plays, and initiating sets in the halfcourt. 

This season especially, Dillingham displayed strong synergies/reciprocity with his PnR partners, in spite of weak screen setting and raw scoring ability from his bigs. He worked around it, playing to their advantage as vertical spacers with a battery of lobs. A versatile passer with his strong hand, Dillingham’s only limit is his size. Can execute skip, pocket, swing, lob, dump, out, overhead, and touch passes. Can make each of these passes live-dribble. 

Dillingham’s passing accuracy is fine, but can be overzealous passing through difficult, awkward windows. His overall passing velocity is strong, but both his passing speed and accuracy take a decline when tightly defended, typically as he’s making passes from the paint. 

Dillingham has done an excellent job manipulating help-defenders with his eyes, freeing up an extra split second for his teammate to score. Best examples of this are on dump offs, as Dillingham must bait the low man into guarding ball, freeing up his teammates in the dunker spot. He’s also done this on skip passes, notably in transition. 

Turnovers from Dillingham derive from either being outmuscled or overplaying his hand as a shot creator. He isn’t a sloppy player, with a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio, but he does fall into sloppy moments with the occasional over-dribbling.  

DEFENSE 

Defense is the area of Dillingham’s game that has left most trepidant around projecting him as a high-end prospect. Preceding his technical, cognitive ability, size is his most glaring weakness. There’s no defensive versatility offered by a 6’1, slender guard. On paper, he’s physically a liability against every NBA player, certainly starters, 1-5. So, while there may not be a demand to pair a specific guard archetype next to Dillingham offensively, teams will undoubtedly look to add size in the backcourt to shore up his defensive deficiencies. 

Athletically there’s bright spots. Sharp lateral agility and hip mobility, allowing him to track ball-handlers quite well in isolation. This provides a foundation for an organization to build his defensive competency from, ground up.  

Outside of his athletic charm, the positives around his defense run dry. Yes, he’s not afraid to defend in space but also can abandon his team attempting to create a play 1 on 1, 30-40ft out. His recovery defense exacerbates this issue, as he has no recovery defense. 

He’s equipped with a slim frame, but navigating screens persists to be an over demanding task. Struggles to effectively fight through screens, dying upon contact of the screener. He could go under but doesn’t have the length to then closeout if the ball-handler goes for the three. He could go over but did a poor job the entire season trying to recover once beat. Switching as a 6’1 guard is a very tall task (no pun intended). 

Off-ball troubles worsen but are inversely simpler to fix. Fundamentally he is absent in his role as an off-ball defender. Constant ball-watching allows for baseline cutters and open off-screen actions. Doesn’t particularly focus on guarding with anticipation, very reactive. Doesn’t play passing lanes, doesn’t look to get involved defensively.  

Tends to sag quite deep off his matchups off-ball, which is a big mistake for a defender with such poor recovery skills. It creates easier possessions for his man to attack off-the-catch. By sagging off, Dillingham isn’t there to disrupt the pass, and he isn’t present to apply any resistance before his man establishes speed. There isn’t any evident purpose in the depth in which he sags, but only to ball watch.  

When Dillingham does defend with a purpose off-ball, he often forgets to try after the defensive rebound, quickly shifting his focus into transition offense. With his man unguarded, opponents easily generate second chance opportunities. This specific habit cost Kentucky a couple of close games. 

Watching Dillingham defensively, it’s clear he’s established poor defensive habits in previous contexts. He has flashes of effort, and generating stops, but on a technical, cognitive, and physical basis, Dillingham is objectively extremely far away from being evaluated as even a neutral defender. In the NBA it will worsen, and under the wrong system, it could morph into unrepairable.  

The major theme for Dillingham defensively is a lack of discipline on even the most fundamental aspects of defense. He’s immature. One could hope his competitive spirit convinces him that learning and applying defense adds value to his game, as teams aren’t eager to play a prospect of his stature meaningful minutes otherwise. 

VERDICT: 

Tantalizing offensively with seriously worrying defensive traits. Still, a top 10 prospect in this class and comfortably top 5 if there’s confidence around his defense improving. An incredibly scalable guard that understands which role he needs to play offensively. An attractive prospect for teams looking to invest in risk for the chance of significant upside.