Prospect Complexity: The Thompson Twins

A series analyzing controversial prospects draft experts are torn over.

The 2023 draft class has been touted as the deepest class in two decades, going all the back to 2003, when LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwayne Wade were selected to become franchise cornerstones. 20 years later, teams will have the chance to draft Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, and the Thompson twins. The only player out this young bunch that is projected to have a career like any of the four hall-of-famers mentioned is Wembanyama, but expectations remain sky high for the others.

For the Thompson twins, expectations are a little different. They’re uber-athletic, high-feel, and most critically, high-risk prospects. On the surface, the Thompsons are surefire stars in the league. Under the surface, there are legitimate questions to be considered when evaluating the two. They’re both projected in the top 10, even as high as top 5, but as the NCAA play heats up, and college prospects like Keynote George and Brandon Miller rack up big games, the twin’s status as best in the class is challenged.

While Amen has mostly stayed out of these conversations, projected third in the class, Ausar has been a hot topic, bouncing between fourth and tenth in mocks. Going through highlights, the Thompson’s have the same speed, the same athleticism, the same handle, and the same playmaking ability. It doesn’t make much sense to the naked eye why the twins would be 6 spots from each other. It’s not until film is broken down that the weaknesses and differences between the two are revealed.

Before getting to their play, it’s important to note that the twins are not in college or the G-League. Instead, they’ve taken an unorthodox route, by signing to OTE (Overtime Elite). There are only six teams at OTE, and only one team (YNG Dreamerz), is a respectable opponent to the twins and their squad, the City Reapers. Because there’s only six teams, they’ve had to play some teams up to three times in their 12 total games so far. Additionally, the twins are one of, if not, the oldest in OTE, as well as the only 2023 prospects at Overtime. To contextualize this, here’s a quick look at where Brandon Miller is, another top prospect. Miller attends University of Alabama, as one of four freshmen on the seventeen-man roster, making him one of the youngest on the team. Alabama is a member of the SEC, a conference host to 14 schools with a couple of the nation’s top basketball programs. Miller has played 18 games against 18 different schools, and around a third of his games have been against teams with potential NBA prospects.

The difference in the talent pool and structure is stark. This by no means invalidates the string of performances the Thompsons have had at OTE. However, when evaluating, particularly players who are being projected in the top 5, it’s critical understanding what exactly you’re looking at.

Projected 3rd overall, Amen Thompson is an explosive two-way point guard with sky-high upside. He’s an above-the-rim, slashing playmaker with an advanced feel and vision for the game. At 6’7”, 202-lbs, Amen is one of the taller point guards to come through the draft. What makes Amen so special is his court vision and execution at his height. Whether it’s in transition or in the half-court, Amen thrives in quick, fast-paced play. In transition, Amen is the best among his class at pushing pace, hitting the open man, not forcing bad shots, not turning the ball over, and simply always making the right play. In the half-court, Amen again is the best passer/playmaker in his class. Demonstrates great timing, quickness, instinct as a passer. His versatility and creativity as a playmaker are far and above his peers. Hitting the weak side, executing drive and kicks, dump offs, lobs, pnr, pick and pop, and the underrated bullet pass, Amen can do it all. He’s averaging 5.9 assists this season and while he’s also averaging 3.3 turnovers per game, two-thirds of those TOs come from areas outside of passing. Also, it’s good to note that he’s averaging those assists without a true big man to spam pnr with. At times Amen will make an unnecessary pass, giving the ball up instead of trying to score himself. This trait speaks more on his confidence as a scorer, than his decision making as a passer.

As a scorer, Amen is an exceptional slasher and finisher. Despite the slim frame, Amen does a wonderful job getting to the basket, utilizing his craftiness and athleticism to beat defenders off dribble and finish through traffic. He’s already experiencing teams game planning against this strength. Defenses like to crowd the paint, forcing him to score from outside. Amen can snake his way through with his speed and verticality, but this game plan has found success in limiting his effectiveness. Shooting is a glaring weakness of Amen, especially off the dribble. Amen has the potential to be one of the league’s best shot creators, but he can’t shoot. Not only is he a poor shooter, but the shooting form is terrible. UCLA Lonzo Ball terrible. Unfortunately, the scoring doesn’t just affect how many points he puts up a night. It’s affecting his decision making in general. Amen can create a ton of separation with his dribble, but instead of taking the jumper, he’ll go for a contested layup through traffic. Amen generates huge separation off his step backs, but the confidence in his jumper isn’t there, so it’s all for naught. The jumper makes Amen incredibly complex to evaluate as a prospect. Even Amen’s defense is elite. The shooting, however, is a big issue for a prospect that doesn’t have the size to overpower guys in the paint. Over time, prospects like Brandon Miller and Keynote George rack up huge nights against legacy programs, folks will begin to question if the upside of Amen Thompson is worth the risk.

Ausar Thompson has similar strengths and weaknesses. Same motor going downhill, same shooting struggles, and both possess tremendous playmaking ability. Ausar’s court-vision and shot selection isn’t as strong, but his shooting splits are better. Ausar’s game fits into the shot creator archetype. His bread and butter is attacking the rim, but he loves going for a bucket in iso. He creates for others and loves to feed the big man down low. There are some key differences between Amen and Ausar’s assists, as well as their turnovers. Amen is the primary ball handler. Even in stride, he’s looking for the open man, willing to give up a good look for a great look. With Ausar, once he’s in scoring mode, he’s passing the ball to bail out from a bad possession, not because he’s found a better play. This is the main contributor to Ausar’s 3.2tpg.

Defensively, Ausar is one of the best in his class. He’s a terror POA defender and is just as effective off-ball. He does a great job disrupting passing lanes, applying pressure, and poking the ball from ball-handlers. Ausar truly thrives turning defense into offense. Lonzo Ball and Matisse Thybulle are players that come to mind when looking at his defense. On the season, Ausar is averaging 2.5spg and 1.2bpg, while only committing an average 1.7 fouls a game.

With everything laid out, the twins are still top-10 locks. The upside, talent, and baseline skill are worth the risk. This draft class is deep, but no other prospects have the combination of abilities the Thompsons possess. The defense if anything will keep them on the court. Usman Garuba has played significant minutes for the Rockets, and his scoring ability is subpar, to say the least. If the Thompsons are the hard and dedicated workers the scouting reports say they are, the shooting will improve in time. Playmakers are far and few, and two-way playmakers are even rarer. Time is what’s crucial. There’s major work to be done with their jumpers, and it’s not an overnight fix. An organization willing to stick through their development is important to their improvement as professionals.