The 2023 NBA Draft Big Board Guide.
The 2023 NBA Draft Big Board Guide.
With the NBA draft around the corner, draft news, big boards and mock drafts are hitting their peak. Daily updates from insiders, new scouting reports, and player interviews, there’s something new every day. With all the noise that’s around the draft, the following two graphics were created in an attempt to simplify and organize this class’s prospects in an objective, informative, yet efficient manner.
Roles:
Primary Ball-Handler - These are the initiators of the offense. Typically whoever takes the ball up the floor is the primary. PnR is usually their most ran set. Jayson Tatum, Trae Young, and Tyrese Haliburton are examples.
Secondary Ball-Handler - These are off-ball scorers that act as secondary initiators for the offense. Devin Booker and Jalen Green are examples.
Shot Creator - These ball-handlers rely on their self-creation to score and create for others at an above average rate. Luka Doncic and James Harden are examples.
Slasher - These players prefer to attack closeouts and driving lanes to penetrate into the paint. Kenyon Martin Jr, Scottie Barnes, and RJ Barrett are examples.
Play Finisher - These players are responsible for scoring in an off-ball role. They do not initiate offense, and while they may have a high usage rate, their touches are generally lower than primary/secondary ball-handlers. Lauri Markkanen, Trey Murphy III and Jabari Smith Jr are examples.
Motion Shooter - These are perimeter scorers that find looks by virtue of motion. Coming from off-screens, handoffs, or rampant off-ball movement all apply as motion shooting. Klay Thompson and Kevin Huerter are examples.
Stationary Shooters - These players score around the perimeter off the catch. Eric Gordon and Al Horford are examples.
The graphic above assigns a color to each prospect's offensive role. The prospects are then tiered by height, which highlights how unique or common their playstyle is for their size. Amen Thompson is a good example. Out of 15 prospects in his tier, he’s the only primary ball-handler. Considering how rare it is for wing-sized prospects to fulfill the primary ball-handling role in general, it’s not surprising that he became a consensus top-5 pick in the draft.
Not every player with a unique role for their size is a top prospect. GG Jackson in recent weeks has mocked as low as the early second round, despite being a 6’9 shot creator. Typically wing-sized players with his size, talent, and especially age, are drafted lottery. While his shot-making talent is extraordinary for his age, he was considerably flawed in nearly every other area. His playstyle overall at South Carolina simply isn’t perceived as scalable or productive at the NBA-level.
Scalability and productivity are the biggest areas of contention when projecting prospects. Particularly ball-dominate players.
Traits:
Shot-Making: The ability to make “tough shots”, or consistently convert shots above the expected rate. Gradey Dick and Miller aren’t self-creators like Brandin Podziemski or Ricky Council IV, but their elite perimeter shooting qualifies them as shot-makers.
Rim Pressure: The ability to contort defenses by attacking the basket. Total volume and number of self-created attempts at the rim are factored.
Touch: The ability to consistently convert baskets with the appropriate force on the ball. Understanding how motion, distance, and power intersect when shooting/laying up the ball.
Playmaking: The ability to create offensive advantages for teammates. Understanding how to read the defenses and exploit weaknesses.
Efficiency: The ability to maximize scoring output with minimal utilization, relative to the landscape. For example, Kevin Durant shot 61.4% eFG this season. League average eFG% is 54.5. Relative to the league Durant is exceptionally efficient.
Wingspan: The length of a players outstretched arms, from fingertip to fingertip. Prospects with a wingspan at least 3 inches longer than their height (in shoes) have the wingspan star.
Defense: The ability to guard the opponent from scoring. The type of defense played is dependent on size and role. There’s on-ball defense, off-ball defense, help-defense, and defensive anchors. Versatile defenders can defend effectively in multiple roles.
Athleticism: The combination of physical qualities that are characteristic of an athlete. Speed, strength, burst, vertical mobility, lateral mobility, agility, flexibility, balance, proprioception, and power are all concepts of athleticism.
This second graphic uses the same framework as the first one, but instead of assigning roles, this graphic designates up to seven stars for every trait a prospect has. Traits scale. Dariq Whitehead’s defense is not Victor Wembanyama's defense, and Nick Smith Jr's athleticism is not Amen Thompson's athleticism. Nonetheless, this graphic shares a general overview of each prospect's abilities that's easy to digest, without all the words.
Looking at the traits/abilities of prospects, it may be confusing to see players with less abilities projected much higher than those with nearly every ability in mock drafts. For example, Anthony Black has been a top-10 lock all season, while Maxwell Lewis' draft stock has ranged from lottery mid-season, all the way into the second round with a few days left in the draft.
There are two main areas of focus when projecting a prospect: Scalability and development. Scouts and analysts make an evaluation as to whether or not the strengths, traits, and abilities of a prospect are scalable and advantageous, while determining if the weaknesses can be improved under a NBA developmental system. There’s also scenarios where the positives are so substantial, that teams take on high-risk players, knowing there’s a high probability said player never shows meaningful improvement in their weaknesses.
In the case of Lewis and Black, both have questions around their scoring being scalable. Black is a poor shooter with questionable touch around the rim. However, he’s considered the best perimeter defender in college among prospects and easily one of the best passers/playmakers. In the eyes of many scouts, his traits make up for his deficiencies. This isn't the case with Lewis. His strengths are solid, but they weren’t strong enough to instill confidence that his role at Pepperdine is scalable to the league. His biggest weakness, defense, is also a major concern. Lewis in his second season regressed as a defender, disappointing many. At this point, teams are unsure if he’s developable as a defender.
There’s a ton of information in these graphics that are open to interpretation. In combination with film, the landscape of the 2023 NBA draft class should become clearer, and constructing individual mock drafts and big boards should be easier as well. They’re great for reference and useful for comparisons between prospects. These roles and traits are only the foundation. It offers a good grasp of what the ceiling could be, but everyone progresses through the NBA differently. Scalability and development are what makes all the difference.